European election: The essential guide

Millions of people across the EU will elect a new European Parliament this week in a vote likely to shift the Continent’s balance of power.

Politicians across the bloc’s 28 member states have cast the election as a crucial battle for the future of the Union, with nationalists and populists campaigning to halt EU integration and mainstream parties urging closer cooperation to solve the Continent’s myriad challenges.

On Thursday, the Netherlands and the U.K. — which has to take part due to the Brexit delay — will kick off the election. Ireland and the Czech Republic follow on Friday. Czechs can also vote on Saturday, when they’ll be joined by Slovakia, Malta and Latvia. All other EU member countries will go to the polls on Sunday, May 26. More than 426 million people are eligible to vote; turnout last time was around 42.6 percent.

Projected results from some countries will start to flow in at around 6 p.m. Central European Time, with a projection of the overall result expected later in the evening. POLITICO will have the most comprehensive coverage of the election, with a live blog running from Sunday throughout the night and into Monday, as well as news stories, analysis and infographics.

The election is projected to produce a highly fragmented Parliament, with the long-dominant center-left and center-right blocs unable to form a coalition by themselves — handing greater influence to smaller players such as the Liberals, Greens and populists. Euroskeptics are expected to win a third of the Parliament’s 751 seats, reflecting the global rise in nationalism. Whether they will be able to act as a coherent bloc, however, is one of the big questions of this election.

We’ve compiled highlights of our campaign coverage to give everyone from the mildly curious to the politically obsessive an essential briefing on the election, the issues, the candidates and the stakes.

For those in a rush, here are our three must-reads:

• Michel Barnier’s not-so-subtle shadow campaign for the EU’s top job
• Europe’s big election mess
• Macron and Salvini face off over Continent’s future

Read on for our complete guide to the 2019 European election.

WHAT’S HAPPENING?

Just the basics: If you only want to know how to vote and who’s likely to come out on top, we’ve got you covered: Here are POLITICO’s latest projections for the European Parliament, and here’s a guide to voting in your country.

Tell me more: One thing seems certain: The European Parliament will have to grapple with greater fragmentation and more Euroskeptics in the chamber. Read about the Parliament’s watershed moment.

Nerd level: Some candidates are essentially guaranteed seats in the European Parliament due to the electoral list system used by most EU countries. Here are the candidates who have already won.

For data geeks: Who will be the winners and losers? What issues do voters care about? Have a look at the data.

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WHO’S RUNNING?

Just the basics: Here are short video interviews with six of the lead candidates — known as Spitzenkandidaten — for European Commission president: Manfred Weber of the center-right European People’s Party (EPP); Frans Timmermans of the center-left Party of European Socialists; Margrethe Vestager of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE); Bas Eickhout of the Greens; Jan Zahradil of the Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists in Europe (ACRE); and Violeta Tomić of the European Left.

As for other MEPs: Here are some of the new faces expected in the European Parliament, from French populists to Silvio Berlusconi.

Tell me more: Read about the top Spitzenkandidaten — and why the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, though not officially a candidate, is also in the running.

If you’ve never heard of Manfred Weber, you’re not alone: He’s a relative unknown outside of Brussels and his native Bavaria, as our profile of him notes. Meanwhile, Frans Timmermans’ high-profile EU record is both his greatest strength and his greatest weakness.

Nerd level: Here is POLITICO’s profile of Nathalie Loiseau, Emmanuel Macron’s standard-bearer in France’s European election campaign and a potential new key Brussels power broker.

For data geeks: See where each political group is strongest and weakest.

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WHAT ABOUT THE POPULISTS?

Just the basics: Italy’s far-right Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini has high hopes for a parliamentary populist alliance.

Tell me more: Far-right parties are hoping to attract voters with fresh faces. In France, it’s Jordan Bardella. In the Netherlands, it’s Thierry Baudet.

Nerd level: It’s Macron vs. Salvini in the battle for Europe’s future.

For data geeks: Europe’s populists are flooding social media, research shows.

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AND WHAT ABOUT BREXIT?

Just the basics: The Brexit delay means the U.K. has to take part in the European election, however reluctantly. That means there could be a messy aftermath for the European Parliament once the U.K. leaves, as British seats will have to be redistributed — and that’s just one of the ways in which U.K. participation disrupts the election.

Tell me more: Here are 13 British MEP hopefuls to watch. There are also two new parties: read about how Nigel Farage runs his Brexit Party like a company and about the group of pro-EU rebel MPs now known as Change UK.

Nerd level: How did the U.K. even end up taking part? Read POLITICO’s deep dive into the Brexit negotiations.

For data geeks: On POLITICO’s projections page, you can check or uncheck “U.K. participates” to see how the European Parliament would look without the Brits.

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WHAT WAS THE CAMPAIGN LIKE?

Just the basics: There were three major Spitzenkandidat debates ahead of the election. Here are our takeaways of the four-way debate in Florence and a recap of the Maastricht debate. And read about how Frans Timmermans tried to lay the groundwork for a left-wing coalition in the last big debate.

Tell me more: The EU got mad at Facebook over the social media giant’s ad policy blocking pan-European campaigns. (Facebook later caved.)

Nerd level: You can rewatch the entire Maastricht debate, co-hosted by POLITICO’s own Ryan Heath, here.

For data geeks: What do European voters worry about? Have a look here.

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WHAT ARE THE CAMPAIGN ISSUES?

Just the basics: POLITICO ran a reality check on the campaign pledges of Manfred Weber and French President Emmanuel Macron’s ideas for EU reform.

Tell me more: Climate change has become a major campaign issue, but the EU is divided over steps to reduce emissions. Meanwhile, Weber has said little about the issue.

Nerd level: Read why food and farming are high on the agenda. And have a look at the election fears keeping the Brussels health bubble awake at night.

For data geeks: Here’s how the main concerns of EU voters have evolved over past years.

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WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE VOTE?

Just the basics: The aftermath looks certain to be messy.

Tell me more: All candidates have pledged to strive for gender parity in the next European Commission, but Council President Donald Tusk thinks that might be “difficult to achieve.” POLITICO has a few suggestions: Here are 14 potential female candidates for EU top jobs.

Nerd level: Could a Socialist run the Commission? Read why it’s become a possibility.

For data geeks: What group could as-yet unaffiliated parties join, and how would that change the seat distribution? Play the Parliament dating game.

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For even more in-depth coverage, read POLITICO’s national Playbook newsletter series ahead of the European election. Some recent newsletters looked at the pre-election political landscape in Germany, France, Poland, Spain and Italy.

And for a review of the 2014-2019 European Parliament, take a look at our ranking of the 40 MEPs who mattered during this parliamentary term.

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