Chaos and indifference in Slovenia

Political turmoil could push turnout in the election to the European Parliament to a new low.

The political turmoil that has engulfed Slovenia and last week toppled its government could, paradoxically, push turnout in the election to the European Parliament to a new low.

Voters are disaffected with the country’s political parties, especially those in the coalition government that collapsed on 5 May – the centre-left Positive Slovenia (PS) and its junior partner, the Social Democrats (SD). The government fell when Zoran Jankovic΄, the founder of the PS, regained the party leadership from Prime Minister Alenka Bratušek, prompting her resignation. The junior coalition parties refuse to work with Jankovic΄, the mayor of Ljubljana, who is under investigation for corruption.

At the same time, the prospect of an early national election, which could be called any day and would be likely to take place in July, will prompt many voters to stay home for the European election.
“Interest in the European elections is dismal,” says Aljaž Pengov Bitenc, editor-in-chief of Radio KAOS and a prominent columnist. “But they are an important factor in how the parties will seek to position themselves ahead of the national election, and they show the depth of voters’ dissatisfaction with the politicians.”

A low turnout will benefit the centre-right opposition, whose electorate tends to be more disciplined than that of the centre-left, says Pengov Bitenc. The centre-right list is headed by Alojz Peterle, a sitting MEP from New Slovenia (Nsi); Milan Zver, another current MEP, from the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), is also certain of re-election. The two parties, both members of the European People’s Party, are projected to win five of Slovenia’s eight seats, up from four at present.

Slovenia’s centrist and centre-left parties, by contrast, have all but imploded. The SD, with two current MEPs, is unlikely to hold on to even a single seat, polling last among the main parties. Its list is headed by party chief Igor Lukšic΄, who is campaigning on the idea of Slovenia as a European swing state whose election result could make the difference between a centre-right or a centre-left victory. That message appears to have fallen flat.

The remaining two current MEPs, Jelko Kacin from the Liberal Democrats (LDS) and Ivo Vajgl from Zares, both sit with the liberal ALDE group in the European Parliament, which has two other member parties in Slovenia. Vajgl himself recently switched to the Pensioners’ Party. Polls suggest that Kacin might scrape in, largely on the strength of his personal appeal.

There had been plans for the four Slovenian ALDE members to compete on a single list, headed by Janez Potocnik, Slovenia’s European commissioner. But neither the single-list plan nor the idea of putting Potocnik forward as head of the list took off. Potocnik stands a fair chance of being re-appointed as a European commissioner, although Bratušek has been exploring the option of moving to the Commission herself.

The events of the past few weeks have been traumatic for the PS, which is currently a member of ALDE but has no MEPs because it was launched after the last European elections. The PS filed its candidate list before the pro-ALDE Bratušek was toppled as its leader; the list includes candidates who have since left the party, following Bratušek’s lead. Jankovic, meanwhile, sees the Party of European Socialists (PES) as the PS’s natural home, but that option has been blocked by the SD, the Slovenian PES member party. The head of the PS’s list, Jože Mencinger, is an outspoken leftist in the Jankovic΄ model.

 

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