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>>> Kona 2014: How the British pros got on in Hawaii

There are four British men on the list: Tim Don, Joe Skipper, David McNamee and Fraser Cartmell. Out of this four, Don is ranked highest thanks to a raft of strong performances that have included wins at Ironman 70.3 Monterrey, Ironman 70.3 Latin American Champs Brasilia and the Ironman 70.3 North American Champs St. George. He also came second at Ironman 70.3 Boulder, and could deliver big things on his Hawaii debut.

Joe Skipper comes third at Ironman UK

Joe Skipper meanwhile has enjoyed a stellar 2015 that included fastest bike leg at Ironman Texas, third at the ITU Long Distance World Champs and third at Ironman UK. It was David McNamee, racing his first M-dot season since leaving ITU racing, who won Ironman UK this year in a time of 8:46:37. Cartmell top results this year include second at Ironman UK, and sixth at Ironman 70.3 Kraichgau.

Top name on the men’s starting list? 2014 champ Sebastian Kienle, of course. The German superbiker won Ironman 70.3 Kraichgau back in June, and came second at Ironman Frankfurt. It was his compatriot Jan Frodeno who won out at the Ironman European Champs, and Frodeno sits second in the rankings thanks to a win at the 70.3 Worlds recently.

Jan Frodeno wins Ironman 70.3 World Champs 2015 (image: Nils Nilsen/Ironman)

Other top-ranked men include 2013 Kona champ Frederik Van Lierde (BEL), Ben Hoffman (USA) who came second last year, multiple Escape from Alcatraz winner Andy Potts (USA), Nils Frommhold (GER) and Timothy Van Berkel (AUS). Bart Aernouts (BEL), Lionel Sanders (CAN) and Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) round out the top ten on the start list.

Female starters

Among the 42 pro women on the start list, there are six British names: Jodie Swallow, Rachel Joyce, Leanda Cave, Lucy Gossage, Susie Cheetham and Corinne Abraham.

Jodie Swallow wins Challenge Dubai

Out of this six, Swallow is highest ranked in third position, thanks to a superb 2015 that’s included smashing the course record at the Ironman Africa Champs in Port Elizabeth, South Africa. Joyce meanwhile finished one place higher than Swallow in Kona last year, where she grabbed third place.

Rachel Joyce on the run at Kona 2014 (image: Paul Phillips)

“I feel like things have come right this year at the right time,” Joyce tells 220. “Bring on Kona. I am hungry to get back there.”

Gossage and Cheetham have both enjoyed a string of good M-dot results this year, including wins at Ironman 70.3 Staffs and Ironman UK for Gossage, and 70.3 Dublin for Cheetham. They both shared the podium with Swallow in Port Elizabeth. Cave and Abraham are ranked 10th and 35th respectively.

No surprise that top-ranked female is 2014 winner Mirinda Carfrae (AUS), who’s had a quiet season so far, placing seventh at Ironman Melbourne and third at 70.3 Vineman. The Aussie rocket presents a huge threat off the bike though: “You can never have too many world titles,” she told 220 last year, after clawing back a 14min deficit at Kona last year to beat Brett Sutton’s protégeé Daniela Ryf (SUI).

Daniela Ryf wins Ironman Frankfurt

Ryf just won the 70.3 World Champs in Austria however, and presents a growing threat to the crown. She also won Challenge Dubai in hot temps last February. We’d be surprised if she didn’t reach the podium this year.

Rounding out the top-ten women are Caroline Steffen (SUI), Julia Gajer (GER), The USA’s ‘Honey Badger’ Mary Beth Ellis, Gina Crawford (NZL) and Meredith Kessler (USA).

Among the notable absences this year are Craig Alexander and Yvonne van Vlerken, who are taking a pass this year, while Linsey Corbin and Sonja Tajsich have or are dealing with injuries.

Full Kona start list.

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>>> The state of duathlon – feature

Organised by British Triathlon, it will be held in the magnificent setting of Windsor Great Park on 3rd April 2016. Places are limited to just 1,000 spots across mass participation sprint and standard distance races.

The full list of British Champs hosted at Windsor Duathlon is as follows:

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· British Age-Group Standard Distance Duathlon Champs (GB Age-Group qualifier)
· British Elite Senior Duathlon Championships
· British Elite Youth Duathlon Championships
· British Elite Junior Duathlon Championships
· British Paraduathlon Championships

The sprint races will involve a 5km run followed by a 20km bike, finishing with a 2.5km run. The standard distance doubles that (10km/40km/5km), and there will also be a relay (5km run, 20km bike, 2.5km run) and paraduathlon (5km run, 20km bike, 2.5km run) races.

Windsor Castle, viewed from the Long Walk

“This is an event that is set to become one of the real highlights in the world of multisport,” said British Triathlon’s director for major and national events, Jon Ridgeon. “With British titles available for both elite and age-group competitors alongside sprint, standard, relay and paraduathlon races for newcomers to the sport, this will be a true festival of duathlon.”

To register your interest in taking part in Windsor Duathlon, visit www.windsorduathlon.com. Registration will ensure you are the first to hear about entries opening to the general public.

Home Nation members will receive an exclusive priority entry window that will begin on 1 October 2015. To join your Home Nation in advance of entries opening, visit www.britishtriathlon.org/join.

(Images: Peter Suranyi / Diliff)

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The full calendar includes all Triathlon England and British Triathlon Age-Group Championships, as well as the Great Britain Age-Group Team qualification events taking place next season.

Great Britain Age-Group Team ITU/ETU Championship Qualifiers

Next year’s calendar has six qualification events for the 2016 ITU Sprint and Standard Distance Triathlon World Championships, and five qualifiers for 2016 ITU Sprint and Standard Distance Duathlon World Championships.

>>> Group bike riding etiquette, explained for triathletes

With next year’s ITU Sprint Distance Triathlon and Duathlon World Champs being made draft-legal, British Triathlon has made all domestic qualifying races draft-legal to get British athletes ready.

The draft-legal triathlon qualifiers include Eton Dorney on May 22, Strathclyde Multisport Festival on June 5, and Llandudno Sea Triathlon on June 19.

The draft-legal duathlon qualifiers include Oulton Park on March 6, and Bedford Autodrome on March 13.

British Triathlon Age-Group Championships 2016

The 2016 British Triathlon Age-Group Championships will get started with the newly-announced Windsor Duathlon on 3 April 2016.

The British Sprint Distance Triathlon Championships will take place at the Big Cow Sprint Triathlon on 15 May 2016, followed by the British Middle Distance Triathlon Championships on 22 May 2016 hosted at the Grafman.

The British Standard Distance Triathlon Championships return to Tri Liverpool on 14 August 2016.

Triathlon England National Championships 2016

The Triathlon England – National Championships kick-off with the National Duathlon Championships at Stockton Duathlon Festival on 24 April 2016.

The National Standard Distance Triathlon Championships will take place at St Neots Triathlon on 8 May 2016, whilst World Triathlon Leeds will host the National Aquathlon Championships on 11 June 2016.

Leeds Castle Triathlon will host the National Sprint Distance Triathlon Championships on 25 June 2016, with the National Relay Championships taking place at the Triathlon Relays in late August (date TBC).

The final Championship of the year, the National Middle Distance Triathlon Championships takes place at Vitruvian Triathlon on 10 September 2016.

The full British Triathlon events calendar for 2016 can be found here.

(Images: British Triathlon)

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>>> Helvellyn Triathlon race tips

After swimming 1.6km in crystal clear Ullswater lake, athletes must face ‘The Struggle’ on the 60km bike leg, involving 455m of climbing to the top of Kirkstone Pass, finishing with a 14km run up and down the mountain of Helvellyn (950m). 

This year’s men’s race was won by Alex Lawton, who set a new course record of 3:27:05 – more than 1min faster than 2007 winner Alistair Brownlee – while Bonnie Van Wilgenburg won the women’s race in 4:18:23. Full results here.

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>>> Joe Skipper and Eleanor Haresign win Challenge Weymouth 2014

Britain’s Stephen Bayliss was first out the water in 50:06mins with Jaroslav Kovacic (SLO) just one second behind him and Marek Jaskolka (POL) 1:30mins further back.

And so this group of three remained for the first lap of the bike with a chase group five minutes back led by Chris Fischer (DEN) and including Graham Stewart (GBR) and David Näsvik (SWE). 

However, by 99km it was all change with Jaskolka breaking away, Bayliss dropping back and Fischer and Stewart picking up the pace to chase Jaskolka. Jaskolka’s calculated decision to break away paid off and he proved uncatchable for the rest of the race, posting a 2:57hrs marathon split to take the win and European title.

Meanwhile behind him the battle for the podium continued with Näsvik holding second place until the 30km mark when Kovacic proved too fast and overtook. In the meantime Marques had been working his way up the field from seventh place and 16mins down off the bike to round off the podium in third, posting the fastest run split of the day in 2:45:19. Stewart was top-placing Brit in fifth. 

Women’s race

The women’s race was dominated at the start by Kate Comber (GBR) and Eva Potuckova (CZE) who exited the water first in 57:26. By the second lap of the bike course, Comber had put three minutes into Potuckova and came into T2 2:35mins up.

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Up until this point, Sweden’s Camilla Lindholm had been under the radar, playing catch-up after a 1:11hrs swim and not registering on the timing system due to a chip issue. Arriving in T2 in third, she soon made her presence known. 

By 10km, she had formed a 1:13min lead over Comber and continued to extend this over the multi-lap course along Weymouth’s beachfront promenade, taking the European title 10:50mins ahead of second-placed Comber. Vicky Gill rounded off the women’s podium in 9:53:26.

Men’s results

1. Marek Jaskolka (POL) – 8:42:32
2. Jaroslav Kovacic (SLO) – 8:45:51
3. Sergio Marques (POR) – 8:46:51
4. David Näsvik (SWE) – 8:51:38
5. Graeme Stewart (GBR) – 8:53:04

Women’s results

1. Camilla Lindholm (SWE) – 9:41:31
2. Kate Comber (GBR) – 9:52:21
3. Vicky Gill (GBR) – 9:53:26
4. Eva Potuckova (CZE) – 10:06:52
5. Yvette Grice (GBR) – 10:09:49

For full results head here.

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>>> Ironman Wales 2015 – in pics

It was Harry Wiltshire (GBR) who quickly set the tone amongst the talented men’s field, leading the way as he exited the 3.8km sea swim in 51:55mins for an early move, with local hero Olly Simon just a few seconds behind.

As the leaders headed up the infamous zig zag climb and 1km run through a roaring Tenby crowd to T1, it was Thomas, Nick Baldwin (SEY) and Felipe Manente (BRA) who were hot on their heels, with Craig Twigg (GBR) and Markus Thomschke (GER) a further 5 minutes behind.

It wasn’t long before Germany’s strong biker Markus Thomschke and rookie Thomas made their move to join Wiltshire and the trio pushed hard. Meanwhile, Croatia’s Andrej Vistica was also working his way up the field to join them, in a pace that Simon was unable to sustain.

Thomschke set the fastest bike split of the day, covering the testing 180km of climbing over 1,800m which saw him dismount in 4:57:15 in first place, being unable to break clear from Thomas for over 100km. Meanwhile Wiltshire was trailing in 3rd and Croatia’s Vistica was still chasing hard in 4th. 

Thomschke managed to hold his strong pace which guaranteed him a podium place, but he was not a match for the leg speed of Thomas, who despite having never run a marathon distance before, found the strength to produce a sub-3hr marathon, cruising to the finish in a superb time of 08:57:33. In the race for second and third place, Vistica managed to steal ahead of Thomschke at the 28km mark, and he stretched the lead to just over 2mins, finishing in 08:09:02.

Jesse Thomas wins Ironman Wales 2015

Greeted on the finish line by his wife and family, Jesse was emotional but clearly thrilled by his shock result for his first Ironman. “The longest I have ever run was 17 miles. It sounds crazy but I entered Wales as I love it tough. After my disappointment at my result at the Ironman 70.3 World Championship, this has been the most magical day and a dream come true. I couldn’t have asked for a better start to racing Ironman.”

Women’s race

In the women’s race, Germany’s young performer Anja Beranek, who recently finished third in the 2015 Ironman 70.3 World Championship, dominated the field with a stunning performance from start to finish. Although a strong swim from Carol Bridge (GBR) saw the pair exit together, it only took a matter of minutes for closest rival Katja Konschak (GER) to move into second place once out on the bike course. 

Anja Beranek wins Ironman Wales 2015

Beranek could not be touched on the bike as she steadily pulled away from her rivals and headed into T2 with a phenomenal bike split of 5:30:15 (7th overall), having extended the lead to a punchy 32:05mins.

With Beranek in a class of her own, the race was on for second and third place between Tineke Van Den Berg (NED), Eleanor Haresign (GBR), Tine Holst (DEN) and Konshcak, all jostling for podium as a close pack. However it was Tineke who managed to hold onto second place with Katja producing the fastest 3:13:50 marathon run to take bronze, finishing in 10:28:22 and 10:29:55 respectively.

Former Pro cyclist Emma Pooley showed that she can hold her own on the bike and the run and continues her transition to triathlon, finishing in a credible fifth place in 10:38:41.

Age-groupers

Around 1,800 age-groupers set off shortly after the pros at 7am with rolling starts, ranging in age from 18 to 76. Britain’s Andy Greenleaf (M30-34) was first age-grouper across the line in 9:31:01, while Spain’s Esther Leal Pareja (W35-39) was first female age-grouper in 11:29:25.

Full results can be found here.

Entries open for next year’s Ironman Wales will open online at 3pm BST on Monday 14th September here.

(Images: Ross Grieve / Huw Fairclough / Dirty Green Trainers)

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>>> Brighton and Hove Triathlon incoming

There will be three distances on offer: the Super Sprint (400m/5km/2.5km), Sprint (750m/20km/5km) and Olympic (1,500m/40km/10km). Entries are also available to enter as a relay team for two or three people each.

The races will take place on Sunday 11 September 2016, and there are just 1,500 entry spots available. They’ll go on sale a week on Saturday (26 September, 2015) here, and those who are pre-registered will receive a one-week early bird entry period. 

(Main image: Garry Knight)

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>>> Leeds Triathlon 2014 race report

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Standard distance

The standard race incorporated a 1500m open-water swim in Waterloo Lake, a fast and scenic 44km cycle leg and finished with a 9.4km run in the beautiful setting of Roundhay Park.

Pete Shuttleworth on the bike

Pete Shuttleworth of Belper 10:20 Triathlon Club was amongst the first out of the water and took the lead on the run leg, winning the standard distance race in a time of 02:09:24. Richard Howarth secured second place in 02:10:32 and Richard Ebbage of Trilogy / Royal Marines took third place in 02:10:48.

Hannah Bridger clocked the fastest women’s swim and continued to build the gap from there, crossing the finish line in 02:35:11. Runner-up Jane Milnes finished in 02:39:42, and Beth Eyles took third place in 02:49:32. Claire Hebblethwaite of Knutsford Triathlon Club celebrated her birthday at the event by claiming fourth place in the standard-distance race, winning the 35-39 age-group prize.

Sprint distance

Athletes in the sprint distance race completed a 750m swim in Waterloo Lake, a 24km cycle and a 6.4km run.

Jonathan Chatten leaves the swim

The sprint distance title went to Jonathan Chatten of North West Regional Academy who was dominating the field after an exceptionally fast swim and run, winning the race in a time of 01:17:22. Joseph Hudson of Sheffield Tri Club claimed third place in 01:24:22, ahead of David Stevens of Triangle who finished in 01:25:13.

Kirsteen Young on the bike

The women’s sprint title went to Kirsteen Young of Leeds Bradford Triathlon Club who crossed the finish line in a time of 01:31:21. Anna Hobbs of Valley Striders Triathlon Club secured second place in 01:38:49, ahead of Sarah Roberts of Manchester Triathlon Club in 01:40:48.

Leeds Triathlon 2015 – Standard Distance
Men 

1) Pete Shuttleworth (Belper 10:20 Triathlon Club), 02:09:24
2) Richard Howarth, 02:10:32
3) Richard Ebbage (Trilogy / Royal Marines), 02:10:48

Women 

1) Hannah Bridger, 02:35:11
2) Jane Milnes, 02:39:42
3) Beth Eyles, 02:49:32

Leeds Triathlon 2015 – Sprint Distance

Men

1) Jonathan Chatten (North West Regional Academy), 01:17:22
2) Joseph Hudson (Sheffield Tri Club), 01:24:22
3) David Stevens (Triangle), 01:25:13

Women

1) Kirsteen Young (Leeds Bradford Triathlon Club), 01:31:21
2) Anna Hobbs (Valley Striders Triathlon Club). 01:38:49
3) Sarah Roberts (Manchester Triathlon Club), 01:40:48

The full results are available on www.xtramileevents.com/results/2015/.

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It’s the battleground of the most famous triathlon of them all, the Iron War, and year-on-year it provides feats of superhuman endeavour and industrial scale meltdowns in equal measure.  

From its roots as the birthplace of Ironman, there is nothing like Hawaii’s Big Island, and next month the 2015 edition is set to be bigger and better than ever. 220 columnist Tim Heming casts his eyes over the Kona contenders and makes his picks for Ali’i Drive glory. First up, the women…

10. Meredith Kessler (USA)

Past results: Seventh in 2013; 26th in 2010; DNS in 2011 and 2012; DNF in 2014

Solid, dependable and successful – just not on the Big Island. Kessler’s transformation from an age-group triathlete with insatiable training needs to top-end professional is a testament to her perseverance, but she’ll have to keep working at it a little longer if she’s to crack the tough nut of Hawaii.

No doubt wily San Francisco-based coach Matt Dixon will have a plan to keep shaving the necessary seconds from the overall time that will give his star pupil and strong swim-biker a chance, but it’s doubtful whether the American has the run speed over a marathon to compete for the win. 

Fortunes will at least look to be improved from last year where Kessler dropped out on the run, although her 5:11 bike split – while still the seventh quickest in the women’s field – was a good 15mins slower than she would have wanted. 

This year Kessler has been back on the winning trail including six victories and wins in her favourite Antipodean hunting ground at Ironman New Zealand and in the Asia-Pacific 70.3 championship in Auckland – her only blemish being a DNF in last month’s Ironman 70.3 World Championship where she dropped out on the run. 

It’s a similar build-up to the 2014 season, with an Ironman win early season to top up the qualifying points followed by a series of middle distance races. Her camp will just hope for a happier ending this time around.

9. Leanda Cave (GBR)

Past results: Champion in 2012; third in 2011; eighth in 2007; 10th in 2010; 12th in 2013; 18th in 2014; 20th in 2009; DNS in 2008

This promises to be Cave’s most competitive outing since taking the title in 2012. Since then the globetrotting star who was born in the UK, brought up Australia and now resides in Miami Beach, Florida has had to deal with press commitments, injuries and a debacle of a Commonwealth Games selection process that meant briefly flirting with a return to short course draft-legal races. 

There was even a skin cancer scare to throw to into the mix. After a forgettable 12th in 2013 and 18th last year, Cave looks back in business, racing for a new Middle Eastern tri team, Alameda o.n, on a new bike, the quirky looking Ventum, and back with coach Cliff English. 

Second in a fiercely contested North American Ironman Championship in Texas behind Canada’s Angela Naeth shows she is back in racing shape too. A rangy triathlete, Cave has proved she can cope with hot conditions despite the fair skin, and with a glut of experience, she’ll not be fazed by opposition tactics. 

The biggest question marks are whether she has both the footspeed and desire for one more world title. Cave is already an ITU long distance champion, won the Ironman 70.3 title in the same year as her Kona win and even took the ITU world short course crown in Cancún, Mexico way back in 2002. 

Expect better than the last two years, but at 37, there are a lot of miles on the clock for Cave to be much more than a top-10 contender.

8. Heather Wurtele (CAN)

Past results: eighth in 2011; 14th in 2012; 15th in 2014; DNF in 2013

One half of Canada’s first couple of triathlon, Wurtele is no longer a mere top-10 contender. The swim remains a weakness, which will not be helped by the absence of wetsuits from the warm Pacific waters, and it has to be disheartening running into T1 alongside Mirinda Carfrae as Wurtele did last year. 

That said, as long as she’s not exiting T2 with Carfrae, Wurtele can at least match her best result to date on the Big Island. Her bike leg is strong and although the run did not hold up last year as she dropped to 15th, she consistently ducks under 3:10 for Ironman marathons. 

This year performances have taken a step up. Wurtele was runner-up – albeit a distant second – behind Daniela  Ryf in the Ironman 70.3  World Championships  in Austria which matched the one-two of the stacked field in the $300,000 Challenge Dubai in February. 

She also won the 70.3 North American title in St George, Utah. The final piece of the puzzle could be the dedicated support crew  – because on the men’s side, husband Trevor hasn’t made the cut.

We continue our countdown for women’s glory at Kona 2015…

7. Caroline Steffen (SUI)

Past results: Second in 2010 and 2012; fifth in 2011, 2013 and 2014

One of a remarkable ten 37-year-olds on the professional women’s start-line, the twice Kona runner-up is a model of consistency in Hawaii. In 2013 Steffen battled stomach issues to finish fifth, a position she also held in 2011 and repeated again last year. 

But if Steffen still has any chance of scenting victory on the Queen K again (she was just 64secs behind Leanda Cave in 2012) then she needs to rediscover the cycling prowess that saw her spend two years on the Swiss national cycling team before triathlon, and also led her to set an Ironman bike course record in Melbourne in 2012 of 4:35:29.

The Swiss does not shirk big race challenges and two third places at the 2015 regional championships in Melbourne and Frankfurt represent a steady return, but while it’s a harsh comparison to draw, in 2012 she won both. Steffen’s successes this year have also not been without incident. 

She won Ironman 70.3 Philippines by more than five minutes — and for the fourth time — but collided with a spectator on the bike and was left with bruising and abrasions. Thankfully, on the predominantly spectator-free Queen K she should only have the opposition to deal with, although they will be handful enough.

6. Jodie Swallow (GBR)

Past results: Fourth in 2014; DNF in 2013

A thoroughbred racer, Swallow – by her own admission – overcooked it this year and was left walking through the run leg of Boulder 70.3 in June with plenty of time for soul-searching. 

The Bahrain Endurance 13 athlete rested up to recover before returning for the Ironman 70.3 World Championship in Austria, only to crash thanks to a blowout on her time trial bike leading up to the race, which ultimately led to a DNF. 

The 2004 Olympian from Essex, who now resides in South Africa and Boulder, Colorado, will hope the enforced break works to her benefit. But while compromised preparation isn’t always the curse it first appears, any chink in the armoury can become a gaping hole when exposed to the fierce conditions of Hawaii. 

Swallow, 34, has the capability to be competitive at all non-drafting distances and is one of the most experienced and prolific racers on the circuit, and last year’s fourth place after a disastrous 2013 where she collapsed with hyponatraemia 20km into the run will be an additional fillip. 

As always, she will be driving from the front in the swim and pushing the pace on the bike, but to stay in contention thereafter she needs favourable conditions, a fuelling strategy that works, her body to be 100 per cent rejuvenated and those capable of unleashing sub-three hour runs to have an off day. That’s a lot of ducks to line up.

5. Julia Gajer (GER)

Past results: Sixth in 2014

When Chrissie Wellington set the world iron-distance record of 8:18:13 in Roth in 2011, you could be forgiven for not remembering who came second – especially as it was 38mins later. 

Yet that performance gave Julia Gajer (then Wagner) the belief she could make a professional career out of the triathlon and it has been steady improvement since as she returned to Roth for two more podiums and to take five minutes off her personal best. 

German women may not deliver the same long-course dominance as their male counterparts but the 33-year-old is a willing flagbearer as she returns to Hawaii after an impressive sixth place on debut last year. Where Gajer looks a threat is on the marathon.

Last year she posted a 3:04:39 split in running down Heather Wurtele and Mary Beth Ellis and it was quick enough to hold off the fleet-footed Liz Lyles and Gina Crawford. Since then Gajer has taken more notable scalps, such as Caroline Steffen at Ironman Frankfurt in July. Under the tutelage of new coach Wolfram – who also works with the Raelert brothers – Gajer is eyeing a top-five finish.

4. Liz Blatchford (AUS)

Past results: Third in 2013, tenth in 2014

Blatchford is a clever racer. With the ITU swim background to put her in position, a (legal) limpet-like knack of sticking to the opposition on the bike leg, and a formidable run, any opportunities that open up will be seized with aplomb. 

After stepping up in distance due to British Olympic rejection for 2012, Blatchford repledged allegiance to the Aussie cause and finished third on her Hawaii debut in 2013. Last year it didn’t go so well, and a solid if unspectacular 9:23:34 meant she scraped into the top 10 just ahead of Britain’s Corinne Abraham, a fellow member of the Uplace-BMC Pro Triathlon team. 

The background support afforded to the 10-strong squad means preparation should not be a problem for the 35-year-old who at just 56kg is already equipped to cope with the energy-sapping heat and humidity. Blatchford is also in decent form.

She returned to the scene of her debut full distance victory to win a third successive Ironman Cairns title in June and lost out by 50secs in Mont Tremblant to the points-scrambling Mary Beth Ellis last month. 

While the wisdom of that final outing less than two months before Kona might be questioned, it is the same race plan as Blatchford employed in 2013 and that was the year she came fourth in Canada and went one better in Hawaii. If she were to go one better than her Mont Tremblant result again, there will be the biggest of umeke bowls adorning the Blatchford mantelpiece.

Find out who we think will win Kona 2015 (3/3)

We conclude our countdown for women’s glory at Kona 2015 and predict who we think will be gracing the podium…

3. Rachel Joyce (GBR)

Past results: Second in 2013; third in 2014; fourth in 2011; fifth in 2010; sixth in 2009; 11th in 2012

If one other female triathlete can rival Mirinda Carfrae for dedication in the pursuit of winning in Hawaii it is the London lawyer-turned-multisporter, Joyce. From a steady run of improvement since finishing sixth on her Big Island debut in 2009, Joyce was the natural British heir to Chrissie Wellington’s throne. 

The reason it’s never quite happened is down to a number of factors. A virus in 2012, won by Leanda Cave but anyone’s for the taking, robbed her of one golden chance even if she soldiered on to finish, and two years ago, with Mirinda Carfrae thundering through the field on the run, she succumbed by five minutes. 

Last year the picture was similar with a 14min gap off the bike expunged as the Australian once again took the honours, and it was that final defeat, with debutant Daniela Ryf splitting the two long-term foes, that sealed the end of Joyce’s coaching relationship with six-time champion Dave Scott. Joyce ‘only’ posted a 3:06:27 marathon in relatively mild Kona conditions and they mutually severed ties. Whether a fresh start under Julie Dibens will pay dividends remains to be seen. 

While vocal on the ’50 Women to Kona’ drive for equal start numbers, she has been quiet on the racing front, the most notable result this year was a third place in the North American Championship race in Texas which proved enough to consolidate her Kona slot. 

Joyce is still a consistent favourite and the best British hope, but at 37 and with Ryf stronger and with a year’s more experience and Carfrae not looking any less impenetrable, it’s likely her best shot has gone. 

2. Mirinda Carfrae (AUS)

Past results: Champion in 2010, 2013 and 2014; second in 2009 and 2011; third in 2012 

There are few finer sights in triathlon than to see Carfrae in full flow on the marathon in Kona, her 5’3” frame devouring the tarmac and making the elite competitors she’s zipping past – male and female – look like they are wading through treacle. 

You can almost write off any results Carfrae posts for the rest of the year because nobody gears up their season for such a sole purpose, will be better prepared or knows what it takes to win more than the Australian.

Everything is about Hawaii for the 34-year-old and in husband, professional triathlete American Tim O’Donnell, she has a partner who will not only emphasise but immerse himself in the same process. Yet after wins in 2010, 2013 and last year, Carfrae is not being tipped by us for a fourth crown that would equal Chrissie Wellington and leave only Paul Newby-Fraser and Natascha Badmann above her in the number of Kona titles won. 

Quite simply, the Swiss miss we will come to next is so dominant in the first two disciplines, there is likely to be a time gap leaving T2 that even Carfrae will not breach – although it may have to be even more than the 14mins it was last year when a course record run of 2:50:26 meant Carfrae successfully defended her title. 

One thing is certain, whatever the gap out of the water and however much it is extended on the bike, keep the cameras rolling on the charging Aussie. There will be no hitting the panic button, but to prove this prediction wrong she may need something extra special, likely to be a sub 2:50 run and even breaking her own overall course record of 8:52:14.

1. Daniela Ryf (SUI)

Past results: Second in 2014

Ryf burst on to the long distance scene last year with a remarkable run of results that almost culminated with the world title on her Hawaii debut at the age of 27. Parallels were drawn with Chrissie Wellington’s bow on the Big Island in 2007, although this time Ryf would fade on the run to be hunted down by Mirinda Carfrae and lose out by two agonising minutes.

No shame in that, but the comparisons with Britain’s Iron Lady are not really apt. Despite the common thread of coach Brett Sutton, unlike Wellington, Ryf comes from a solid ITU background and placed seventh in the Beijing Olympics in 2008. 

However, after a 40th-placed finish four years later in London, the Swiss sought solace in the Sutton camp and such is Australian coach’s unique influence, the Angry Bird’s migration to long course has been nothing short of majestic. 

If last year’s Ironman wins in Switzerland and Sweden, and half distance world and European titles were not impressive enough, 2015 has been even better. Since a crushing triumph in Challenge Dubai in February, Ryf has steamrollered  the opposition in every race, including a 10min margin of victory in fierce heat in Frankfurt in the Ironman European Championship and an even bigger cushion in making the Ironman 70.3 World Championship look a mere formality last month. 

That latest outing in Zell am See, Austria, demonstrated how Ryf is the complete package as she posted the fastest swim, bike and run of any of the major contenders. This time in Hawaii, she will be aiming to put so much time into Carfrae on the swim and bike that not even the great Aussie can claw it back. 

It’s hard to see her failing, even at such a young age. The only hesitation – and it’s a minor muse – is that after her wins in Dubai and Zell am See, Ryf is in line to receive $1,000,000 for winning Prince Nasser Al Khalifa Triple Crown, with the finale in Bahrain in November maybe splitting her focus.

On current form that looks a cakewalk, and yes, it is almost two months on, but if Ryf is again pressured in the final stages of the Kona marathon, maybe the risk to that once-in-a-lifetime payday might just hold her back mentally. After all, the promise of a $1,000,000 cheque for Christmas would make anyone think twice, even one of Sutton’s triathletes.

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