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There’s a scene in The West Wing’s second season in which one of the protagonists is told a Chinese satellite is falling to Earth, but no one knew exactly when or where.

“A satellite is crashing to Earth, and NASA sent us a fax?” Donna Moss says, clearly concerned. But few in the show shared her fear, because debris in space often falls out of orbit and is either burned up upon reentry or lands harmlessly somewhere on the planet.

The US government estimates around 200 to 400 tracked objects enter Earth’s atmosphere every year — roughly one a day — out of the 170 million pieces of space debris floating above our heads. The fallen items rarely make news, though, since they usually crash into the ocean, which covers about 70 percent of the Earth’s surface, or sparsely populated areas.

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Yet news of a Chinese rocket falling uncontrollably to Earth has awakened the Donna Moss in many of us.

A section of the Long March 5B rocket, which launched China’s new space station into orbit last week, is expected to hit somewhere on the planet either on Saturday or Sunday, experts say. At 10 stories and 18 tons (36,000 pounds), it’s one of the largest items in decades to spiral in an undirected dive toward the Earth.

It could cause serious damage if it hits a major population zone, but so far few governments — especially the one in Beijing — seem overly concerned.

“The probability of this process causing harm on the ground is extremely low,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said on Friday. The White House and Pentagon, meanwhile, say they’re tracking the rocket and have no plans to shoot it out of the sky.

After speaking with experts, two things have become clear about this episode.

The first is that the idea of a large rocket hurtling toward Earth is understandably scary. It conjures up images of a city devastated by the impact, potentially injuring thousands.

Importantly, the chance of anything like that happening is infinitesimally small — like 1 in a 196.9 million chance small. While there have been a few bad incidents in the past, nothing on that scale has ever happened, and very likely won’t now.

The second is that it’s troubling this scenario could happen in the first place. Why is it possible for China, or any other space-faring nation, to launch massive rockets and let them fall to earth willy-nilly?

The answer to that is policy failure: Despite regulations on space flight and conduct, the issue of rocket reentry is loosely and poorly regulated, so countries cut corners and take their chances that a falling rocket won’t hit anything major.

“We’re in the realm of risk management, and states are willing to swallow the risk,” said Christopher Newman, a professor of space law and policy at Northumbria University in Britain.

But there’s always the more-than-zero chance that their luck runs out and a falling rocket sparks a catastrophe. Experts are unanimous that the falling Chinese rocket is a symptom of a much larger problem that needs solving sooner rather than later.

“If you don’t want any more of this kind of thing to happen, we need the big powers to step up,” said Bleddyn Bowen, a professor of space warfare and policy at the University of Leicester in the UK.

How to stop the next falling rocket

There’s a trope about space that it’s the “Wild West,” a phrase I often catch myself using. But the truth is that there have been rules governing operations in space for decades.

In the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 and Liability Convention of 1972 are guidelines for how to punish a country that lets one of its rockets cause damage on Earth. Basically, those rules say that the offending state can be held liable by the victim nation. So, in this case, if the Chinese rocket were to land in the middle of New York City (which, again, is extremely unlikely to happen), the Biden administration could ask China to pay for damages and demand other recourse.

In other words, this is a state-to-state issue. “If the rocket lands on my house, I can’t go and sue China,” Northumbria’s Newman told me. That’d be UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s job to call up Chinese President Xi Jinping.

But that’s really it. There’s nothing in international law to stop any nation from letting any of the 900 rockets currently in orbit from falling in an unplanned way. “This isn’t illegal,” Newman said about the current saga of the Chinese rocket. “There is no sort of regulation on an international level on reentry.”

Individual countries essentially govern themselves when they make plans to launch a rocket into space. If the Chinese government is fine with the plan of an unplanned reentry, then that’s what’ll happen at the end of the mission.

Naturally, such plans cause frustration among space experts. “I think it’s negligent of them,” Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Center for Astrophysics in the US, told the New York Times on Thursday. “I think it’s irresponsible.” Last year, in fact, another Chinese Long March 5B rocket burned up and pieces of metal fell onto a few buildings in the Ivory Coast.

But it’s important to remember two things.

First, China — and other leading space-faring nations like the US, Russia, Japan, and the European Union — know that the chance of hitting people or infrastructure is so small that they don’t feel the need to spend extra money and time to plan for a controlled reentry.

Ensuring a rocket splashes into, say, the Pacific Ocean, requires more fuel and staff work, which increases the cost of missions. For most space agencies grappling with small budgets, cutting costs on that part of the operation is worth the risk.

Second, and relatedly, China isn’t the only country taking their chances here; others, including the US, have as well, leading to some scary scenes.

In 1978, a Soviet satellite carrying a nuclear reactor crash-landed in northern Canada and spewed radioactive waste. The next year, the NASA-launched Skylab space station — America’s first one — fell out of orbit, with parts landing in the Indian Ocean and in Western Australia, though luckily hurting no one.

“Bad behavior was quite typical by the Americans and Soviets during the space race,” said Leicester’s Bowen. “Those who live in glass houses should not throw stones,” he said of current complaints about the Chinese rocket.

While there are more safety measures now and technology has improved, experts say the main problem is still that space law is too lax on this issue. They point to the Ivory Coast incident last year, where the country decided not to seek recourse from China, potentially out of the desire not to anger a key economic partner.

So what has to change?

Experts say countries like China, the US, and others should leverage this moment and work through the United Nations to regulate rocket reentry. They should compel space programs to spend more to ensure their rockets land far away from people, and even wildlife, when possible. Even if the risk of a calamity is extremely low today, the fact that it’s more than zero is already too high.

“If this is good for anything, it’s an opportunity for everyone to take ownership of space as a domain of human activity and to want a say in how it’s governed,” said Northumbria’s Newman. “We’re now at the stage where this is generating concern.”

But until there’s political will for such action — and governments take the rocket reentry problem seriously — we’ll have more Chinese-rocket-type scares.

While here in the US some are tentatively removing their masks and resuming small outdoor gatherings, others around the world are searching for air. In India, people need oxygen, and they need it now.

Last week, Covid-19 became India’s No. 1 killer. One million people in a country with a population of 1.3 billion are predicted to die of Covid-19 by August. As of May 7, 150 people were reportedly dying every hour, and while 29 million have been fully vaccinated there, vaccines are not what is most urgently needed right now.

When people are sick with Covid-19, many have trouble breathing, and the most important treatment is oxygen. But in India there is debate over whether there’s an oxygen shortage or a problem with accessing the existing supply.

Regardless, many people can’t get the lifesaving treatment they need just to breathe. Some oxygen systems, whether for hospitals or for individuals, require refills. Global systems of production, movement of goods, and tariffs all regulate who can get oxygen. In this case, people waiting outside hospitals are dying for oxygen, and this is perhaps why some in India are calling death from lack of oxygen a genocide.

The shortage of oxygen in India is not an unusual event. It is a reminder of interconnected networks that regulate production and supply, and that inequality means life for some and death for others.

Calls for solutions to the oxygen shortage from India’s top court and elsewhere continue, as do urgent messages like #SOSoxygen on Twitter and other social media where people list what they need.

As Ruchit Nagar, founder of Khushi Baby, an Indian NGO headquartered in Udaipur, Rajasthan, explains, “smaller hospitals are pleading, saying, ‘We only have a day of oxygen left and [many] people at risk of dying if we don’t get it in 24 hours.’ In some cases, that cry for help is met on time, but in other cases people literally run out of oxygen. … There’s no easy solution.”

All this is set against a backdrop of climate change, environmental racism, and poverty causing a scarcity of clean air. Poor air quality in India and elsewhere causes childhood asthma and adult lung disease. Housing shortages, overcrowding, and inadequate access to sanitation infrastructure contribute to fine particulate matter, raising risks for poor outcomes from Covid-19 and even increase the likelihood that the virus will spread. This combined with the lack of oxygen creates a dire threat.

As a group of researchers, writers, and medical providers in the US, we are watching these events unfold with grief, horror, and a painful sense of déjà vu from when the US experienced its own horrible surges in hospitalizations and deaths. This will not be the last crisis. But the steps we take to stem the suffering and devastation will inform how we handle future Covid-19 surges and other disasters in other countries. Today the lesson is about oxygen, something none of us can live without.

Why some Covid-19 patients need oxygen

Oxygen is a critical resource because Covid-19 can inflame the lungs and sometimes fill them with fluid, making it hard to breathe. Even asymptomatic people with Covid-19 can have signs of lung infections in X-rays and CT scans that may contribute to a sudden worsening of symptoms. The virus may also bind to hemoglobin, the protein in red blood cells that transports oxygen through the blood and delivers it to the body.

A person’s oxygen level should be 95 to 100 percent at sea level, though patients with chronic lung problems, like emphysema, can live at an oxygen level of 88 to 92 percent. But the National Institutes of Health considers people with Covid-19 who have oxygen saturation levels less than 94 percent to have “severe illness.”

Why? Lower oxygen levels force the body to work harder to supply enough oxygen to vital organs like the heart and brain. Death from Covid-19 is often from hypoxia — a form of tissue suffocation where the lungs are unable to absorb enough oxygen from the air being breathed — or respiratory failure, when the body is unable to get enough oxygen and basically exhausts itself trying. By contrast, early access to oxygen can help prevent patients from becoming critically ill.

How we get oxygen for medical use

The New York Times recently reported on a looming global oxygen crisis, but there were concerns about India’s oxygen supplies dating back to September.

In areas with more resources, oxygen is purified off-site into a liquid form, transported by trucks with massive tanks, and stored in hospitals. This oxygen is then delivered as a gas through piping built into hospitals. Patients receive oxygen through nasal cannulas (plastic tubes that go directly into their noses), masks on their faces, or ventilators.

Some remote hospitals have small plants that can continuously purify oxygen on-site. However, many lower-income communities globally are dependent on smaller individual tanks that need to be refilled. This is the most expensive form of oxygen delivery, costing about 10 times as much as the large-scale liquid version.

Individuals can purchase oxygen tanks, or “cylinders,” which don’t require electricity for use but need to be refilled when they are empty. Tanks last anywhere from less than one hour to nearly 40 hours, depending on how much oxygen the person needs.

Another option — one people are desperately seeking in India — is oxygen concentrators, smaller machines that can provide oxygen to one or a few patients. They are easy to use, are portable, can be placed near bedsides in homes and clinics, and can make oxygen on the spot from air and water. They are ideal for less severe cases of Covid-19.

Since they draw oxygen from the surrounding air, concentrators can cut down the need for constant refilling of oxygen cylinders and free up supply for more severely ill patients. They require batteries or an electrical source, but some designs can supply oxygen 24/7 for five years or more.

The response so far isn’t enough

The Indian government and the international community have been scrambling to increase the supply of available oxygen through multiple means. By the beginning of May, New Delhi’s daily oxygen demand surged to 976 metric tons, more than double its current supply.

Other countries have been donating liquid oxygen, and the Indian government announced plans to dramatically expand oxygen manufacturing abilities, but as of April 24 there were only 33 oxygen plants out of 150 requested. Hence, the majority of the country is relying on the more expensive, single-use forms of oxygen.

The biggest problem may not be the supply itself as much as access. Most oxygen production is on the coast, and special tankers are required to deliver it in larger quantities to population centers. The Indian Army and the Railways Ministry are assisting with the logistics of transporting oxygen tankers to the worst-hit areas.

Previously, hospitals might need a refill once a week, but now they need it daily. Unfortunately, it can take six to seven days for one tanker to make a round trip, and with increased demand, government officials and oxygen plant leaders expressed concerns about tanker shortages during the surge as well.

India temporarily exempted importing personal oxygen concentrators from customs clearance until July 31, paving the way for efficient donation and capacity for better crisis response. While the country’s finance ministry removed both customs fees and the goods and services tax (GST) for oxygen cylinders, the GST of 12 percent — down from 28 percent — still applies to oxygen concentrators, priced at $550 to $4,000. The courts are arguing that concentrators should be treated the same as oxygen cylinders and the GST removed.

With lockdowns creating barriers, raw materials imports are challenging. On top of that, the fractious to and fro between the central and local government on supply and demand worsens oxygen delivery gaps.

Meanwhile, on social media, families and communities are using #SOSOxygen and #OxygenShortage to make requests. With over half of India living without access to the internet, these requests are coming from those with the resources to ask, and they’re taking a significant risk to do so.

In Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, individuals and hospitals can be punished for speaking out about the oxygen shortage, and at least one person has been arrested for tweeting a request for an oxygen cylinder, though this hasn’t stopped people from turning to this last resort.

“Some of the damage can be mitigated, but it’s a bleak situation,” says Nagar. “We’re not going to be able to stop the tsunami. We can try to save some lives, but the tsunami is going to hit. It already has.”

A quicker response to India’s crisis requires flexibility and knowledge from the ground

Today’s oxygen crisis in India feels similar to last year’s personal protective equipment (PPE) shortage in the US and Europe. But wealthier countries are no longer in desperate need of supplies. This gives the US an opportunity to renew its commitment to global health.

More oxygen doesn’t solve the pandemic, but it does save lives. And, in partnership with substantial prevention measures, it is part of a toolkit of strategies to stem the surge.

Technology has facilitated access to some oxygen and other supplies, including crowdsourcing of cylinders and hospital beds. Rural areas with high cellphone use now play public service announcements before each call encouraging the use of masks. And Nagar explains that some local and international organizations, like Khalsa Aid, “have been procuring oxygen concentrators, and some have been able to set up a drive-through situation, where … you can get access to a cylinder or refill your own.”

Perhaps most important to long- and short-term solutions is the ability to listen to on-the-ground needs and work with organizations, like Give India, that are already using locally appropriate tools to address the problems.

Effective international collaboration, like waiving regulations to speed up thoughtful production, helps. So does shipping and distributing the right kinds of technologies for acute care, such as oxygen concentrators, suction tubing, pulse oximeters, antibiotics, and PPE.

China and India, often at odds with border disputes, are collaborating to increase the supply of oxygen concentrators, Nagar says. The World Health Organization Covid-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool can be used for country-level detailed supply calculations. Khushi Baby is also helping with data collection to predict the demand for oxygen and other supplies in upcoming weeks, and it is part of a network of NGOs collaborating to bring support where it is needed most.

The need for global solutions

The surge in India highlights our global interconnectedness, and the need for both global and local solutions to stem the pandemic. India was previously the primary manufacturer of vaccines but now is desperately trying to re-import them.

Meanwhile, other countries are waiting on contracts from India that can’t be filled. At the same time, the new variants that appear with each new surge of cases put all of us at risk, including the variant recently found in four states in India. These variants may lower the efficacy of our vaccines over time. India’s problem is everyone’s problem.

Gaurab Basu, a physician and global health leader at Harvard University, explains that we must shift from thinking about charity to thinking about justice, “not chasing global tragedy with oxygen containers.” He adds that our global experience right now parallels “the lack of federal government in the US for much of 2020 and how the states suffered from that.”

Global leaders and local health care workers can continue to improve triage and clinical care driven by local data. This, coupled with interventions like screening, testing, contact tracing, quarantining, and public service announcements focused on individual behaviors, provides a comprehensive, proactive approach to save lives.

These courses of action pave the way for a proactive and collaborative response to disasters in the future. There is a need for interconnected global systems designed to allow for listening to what’s needed on the ground. And right now, that’s oxygen.

Lisa J. Hardy is an associate professor of medical anthropology and director of the Social Science Community Engagement Lab in northern Arizona conducting international research on Covid-19.

Lawrence Weru is a consultant and digital storyteller who illustrates the sciences for a more just and sustainable world.

Nazia Sadaf is a family physician at PISES Riyadh, integrating patient care with artificial intelligence as a Forbes Ignite Impact fellow and change maker.

Jennifer Kasper is an assistant professor of Global Health and Social Medicine at Harvard Medical School with expertise in health and human rights issues in India.

Francesca Decker is a family physician with a master’s in public health who works in student health at Cornell University.

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White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci said he will not go into restaurants or movie theaters, even though he’s vaccinated. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says vaccinated people should continue masking up indoors and avoiding large gatherings. News outlets have reported on “breakthrough infections” of Covid-19 among the fully vaccinated.

All of this can make it seem like getting vaccinated may not be enough to liberate people from the fear of getting sick and the precautions they’ve taken to avoid the coronavirus in the past year. So I posed a question to experts I’ve talked to throughout the pandemic about Covid-related precautions: How worried are you about your personal safety after getting vaccinated?

They were nearly unanimous in their response: They’re no longer worried much, if at all, about their personal risk of getting Covid-19. Several spoke of going into restaurants and movie theaters now that they’re vaccinated, socializing with friends and family, and having older relatives visit for extended periods.

“I’m not particularly worried about getting ill myself,” Tara Smith, an epidemiologist at Kent State University, told me. “I know that if I do somehow end up infected, my chances of developing serious symptoms are low.”

Instead, experts said they mostly remain cautious to protect others who aren’t yet vaccinated. The vaccines are extremely effective — dramatically cutting the risk of any symptoms, and driving the risk of hospitalization and death to nearly zero. There’s some evidence that these vaccines also reduce the risk of transmission, but we’re still learning how much they prevent someone who is vaccinated from infecting another person. When experts are still taking precautions, it’s this concern for others that primarily drives them.

But, over time, they see even those concerns for others becoming less necessary, too.

“It’s about protecting others. Vaccination makes me essentially safe,” William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, told me. “There’s accumulating evidence, too, that breakthrough cases are less likely to transmit (they have lower viral loads), so by being vaccinated I’m already helping protect others. But I’m also going to continue with behaviors consistent with lower contact rates in the community overall. As more and more are protected through vaccination, I’ll feel less and less of a need for that.”

As vaccination rates climb and daily new cases and deaths drop, experts said that people should feel more comfortable easing up on precautions, shifting the world back to the pre-pandemic days. That might happen sooner than you think — Israel’s experience suggests that cases could start to sustainably plummet once about 60 percent of the population is vaccinated, a point that could be just a month or two away in the US. And with 46 percent of Americans getting one dose so far, cases in the US have already started to decline.

As more of the population gets the vaccine, it’s prudent to keep masking and avoiding large gatherings, and for people who’ve been vaccinated to share their stories and encourage their friends and family to get vaccinated, too. But that’s not because those who are vaccinated are in any trouble. Even with the spread of the variants, the consensus among experts is that vaccinated people shouldn’t worry much about their own risk of Covid-19.

The vaccines really are that good for your personal safety

The clinical and real-world evidence for the vaccines is now pretty clear: They are extremely effective at protecting a person from Covid-19.

The clinical trials put the two-shot Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines’ efficacy rates at 95-plus percent and the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine’s at more than 70 percent. All three vaccines also drove the risk of hospitalization and death to nearly zero.

The real-world evidence has backed this up. In Israel, the country with the most advanced vaccination campaign, the data shows that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has been more than 90 percent effective at preventing infections, with even higher rates of blocking symptomatic disease, hospitalization, and death. You can see this in the country’s overall statistics: After Israel almost fully reopened its economy in March, once the majority of the population had at least one dose, daily new Covid-19 cases fell by more than 95 percent. And daily deaths are now in the single digits and, at times, zero.

The research also shows the vaccines are effective against the coronavirus variants that have been discovered so far. While some variants seem better able to get around immunity, the vaccines are so powerful that they still by and large overwhelm and defeat the variants in the end.

It’s this evidence that’s made experts confident the vaccines let them stop worrying about their own Covid-19 risk. “I am fully vaccinated and have resumed normal activities,” Monica Gandhi, an infectious diseases doctor at the University of California San Francisco, told me. “I have gone indoor dining, went to my first movie theater, and would go to a bar if there was an opportunity!”

The diminished concern applies to others who are vaccinated, too. Smith spoke of having her fully vaccinated in-laws visit this coming weekend — “the first time we’ve seen them in person since December 2019.”

There have been some breakthrough Covid-19 cases among those who are vaccinated. But they tend to be milder infections, less likely to transmit, and far from common. “This is less than 0.01 percent of the vaccinated,” Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at the Yale School of Medicine, told me, citing CDC data. “So extremely rare!”

To the extent that some experts are still playing it safe for themselves, they cited an abundance of caution — and a lack of interest in certain activities.

“I go out to eat, but still only outdoors. I want to be fully relaxed for a restaurant dining experience. For me, with people I don’t know eating with masks off, I feel safest outside,” Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, an epidemiologist at UC San Francisco, told me. “I haven’t been to bars, concerts, theaters, but that probably reflects the fact that I’m a rather boring person.”

Some acknowledged that their continuing caution was a habit that needed to be broken: After a year of worrying about the virus, it takes a bit of time to go back to a pre-pandemic mentality. “I am not too concerned about my own safety,” Jorge Salinas, an epidemiologist at the University of Iowa, told me. “I think it is mostly a matter of habits. I think it is okay to go back to restaurants but have continued getting takeout. But whoever is vaccinated and feels ready, I think it is safe for them to do so in most places.”

Continuing precautions are really about protecting others

The one reason experts consistently cited for continued precautions: the need to protect those who are unvaccinated. “We’ll probably be holding off on any indoors activities for now, since we have an unvaccinated 7-year-old at home,” Smith said. “The risk is low for us to catch and transmit anything to him, but after all this time avoiding indoor venues and being careful, a movie theater or dinner at a restaurant just doesn’t seem worth it when we still have great options with home theater and takeout meals. Once everyone is vaccinated, those will be back in our rotation.”

Some recent research found that the vaccines can reduce the chances of a vaccinated person spreading the virus to others. The CDC summarized one such real-world study for the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, showing the vaccines stop not just symptoms but overall infections and, therefore, transmission:

Results showed that following the second dose of vaccine (the recommended number of doses), risk of infection was reduced by 90 percent two or more weeks after vaccination. Following a single dose of either vaccine, the participants’ risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 was reduced by 80 percent two or more weeks after vaccination.

But in the typically cautious worlds of science and public health, experts want to see a bit more research and data before they declare that vaccinated people can throw out their masks and gather in large numbers indoors. (Some experts also said they may continue masking and avoiding crowded indoor spaces during flu season, after such measures seemed to crush the flu in the past year.)

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Even if the vaccine proves to reduce transmission, it would still be safer for every person who can get vaccinated to get the shot. And as more people get their shots, it’s also safer to stick to some precautions for their sake.

To that end, experts recommended watching a few figures going forward: the vaccination rate, and daily new cases or hospitalizations. As vaccination rates go up and surpass 50 or 60 percent at a local level, a vaccinated person can feel much more confident going out without worrying about potentially infecting others. And as cases and hospitalizations go down, a vaccinated person can also have confidence that there’s not much virus out there — further shrinking their chances of getting infected and spreading it.

In the meantime, those who are already vaccinated can help speed up the process by encouraging their friends, family, and peers to get the shot. Surveys consistently show that around 1 in 3 unvaccinated people are waiting for others around them to get vaccinated first before they do so. Sharing vaccination stories, then, could give people the push they need.

“I’m very cognizant that while I’m vaccinated, many still are not,” Saskia Popescu, an epidemiologist at George Mason University, told me. “So I’m still vigilant in wearing my mask while out in public running errands, or when interacting with servers [and] other patrons if I go to an outdoor restaurant, even though I’m not really concerned for my own risk of getting sick.”

Vaccine passports can liberate America

March 23, 2022 | News | No Comments

Now that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has said that people who have been vaccinated against Covid-19 can shed their masks, there are obvious questions: How do you verify that people are vaccinated? Especially in situations in which some people can’t get vaccinated, including young children, or may remain vulnerable after, like some immunocompromised people, how can we guarantee they’re safe from the unmasked as mandates disappear?

Unlike many of the challenges we’ve faced with Covid-19 in the past year, there’s a clear answer: vaccine passports. Under this system, vaccinated people could provide proof of inoculation to unlock privileges they didn’t have before, like going into a grocery store without a mask or patronizing a restaurant with no social distancing requirements.

Other countries have successfully adopted this strategy. In Israel, which has the world’s most advanced vaccination campaign, a system of “Green Passes” has let the country almost fully reopen while seeing daily new Covid-19 cases drop by more than 95 percent and daily deaths nearly eliminated.

But America has already failed in adopting anything like the Israeli system, with little sign that will change. The CDC-stamped cards people get with their shots are easily copied or forged. President Joe Biden’s administration has rejected calls to adopt nationwide vaccine passports, instead leaving the issue to the private sector. Some states have already moved to ban the use of vaccine passports, blocking government entities — or, in Florida, even private businesses — from asking for proof of vaccination. Meanwhile, some major retailers are lifting mask mandates for those who are vaccinated largely by relying on an honor system.

Legitimate questions exist about how a vaccine passport would work in the US, but it’s worth figuring them out given what’s at stake: a quicker, safer path back to pre-pandemic normal. By giving up on the idea entirely, America is repeating one of its core mistakes of the pandemic — opting for short-term freedom from Covid-related precautions over longer-term freedom from the virus.

The case against vaccine passports typically comes down to a narrow interpretation of freedom. People should be able to make their own choices, the thinking goes, about whether they get vaccinated, and no one should try to coerce them to get the shot. And even if someone does get vaccinated, that’s a private matter that shouldn’t be used by others to limit what a person can do.

But in a longer-term view, vaccine passports actually unlock more freedom — by safely and quickly returning to that pre-pandemic normal.

Over the past year of the Covid-19 pandemic, much of America demanded 100 percent freedom in the face of the coronavirus, rejecting measures like lockdowns, mask mandates, and test-and-trace that critics claimed violated fundamental rights. So much of the country often got close to 0 percent freedom — as the coronavirus spread and people and businesses closed down, voluntarily or by government order, for their own safety.

“Look at how much freedom people in New Zealand have had over the last year versus how much Americans have had — it’s not even a close call,” Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told me. “The question that I have raised is, freedom to do what? I think most people care about freedom to live their lives as they wish.”

Vaccine passports work

Once a person gets vaccinated in Israel, they can get their Green Pass from the country’s Ministry of Health within minutes — through a website, smartphone app, or phone line. Israelis can then print out their scannable passes, or carry around digital versions on their phones. Under the country’s laws, certain businesses, like gyms and movie theaters, ask for the Green Passes to let people in. People with recent negative coronavirus tests and natural immunity, from previous Covid-19 infections, can also obtain a pass.

With this system, Israel has seen stunning results: Despite nearly fully reopening, Covid-19 cases and deaths in the country have fallen to close to zero.

By March, most Israelis had received at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine. With the Green Pass system, Israel moved to nearly fully reopen its economy — keeping in place a mask mandate and some capacity limits. At that point, Israel had more than double the daily new Covid-19 cases as the US. Since then, Covid-19 cases have plummeted by more than 95 percent — to less than 4 percent of the US’s daily new cases. Daily Covid-19 deaths in Israel now regularly come in at zero or the single digits.

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Writing in the New York Times, Isabel Kershner detailed the normalcy Israelis now find themselves in as they get “a taste of a post-pandemic future.” People are dining out, going to packed concerts, and attending sports events — often without masking and with little to no physical distancing.

Replicating Israel’s system exactly in the US would be challenging. Israel has a national health care system, making the task of linking a person’s vaccine status to a Green Pass that much easier. It’s also a smaller, less sprawling country.

If a national standard is out of the question, the US could still enforce some vaccination requirements at the state level, or even in private businesses. But then enforcement becomes more difficult: In Israel, a national standard sets the expectation that a bartender or ticket taker at a movie theater will ask for proof of vaccination. If there are dozens of different private or state-based standards, all of this becomes much harder and more complicated.

Because the vaccines are only authorized for emergency use, there are also legal questions about a vaccine requirement in the US.

“There’s a logic to [vaccine passports],” David Rosner, a public health historian at Columbia University, told me. “But I think it’s trickier than just saying, ‘Yeah, it’s a good thing.’”

Still, if America could figure out the incredibly complicated task of the Covid-19 vaccine supply chain, it can figure out how to let individuals prove that they’re getting those shots.

Yet the US has already seemingly given up. While the Biden administration is reportedly working with private businesses to develop some standards for vaccine passports, it has rejected a federalized system. “The government is not now, nor will be, supporting a system that requires Americans to carry a credential,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said.

So when reporters have asked federal officials how, for example, people can know that others now shedding their masks are truly vaccinated, the answers have largely amounted to shrugs — with assurances that at least the honest people, meaning those who are truly vaccinated, will be protected from Covid-19, even if a nearby unvaccinated person is carrying the virus around.

“The science demonstrates that if you are fully vaccinated, you are protected,” CDC director Rochelle Walensky said, in response to one such question. “It is the people who are not fully vaccinated in those settings who are not protected.”

That’s not a satisfying answer. The vaccines are medical marvels, and the evidence does show that vaccinated people are truly protected from risk of Covid-19, including the variants that have been discovered so far. But there are still reasonable questions about whether future variants could evade vaccine-induced immunity, whether that immunity is durable for very long, what happens with children and others who still can’t get vaccinated, and whether seasonality could produce new coronavirus surges like we saw in the past fall and winter. It also just doesn’t seem safe or fair that a person could lie about their vaccine status, stop social distancing and masking, and pose a risk to everyone else without any measure of accountability.

Israel shows it can be done differently.

Vaccine passports are a ticket to more freedom

The common argument against vaccine passports is, essentially, freedom: People don’t want their rights to privacy supposedly violated by having their vaccine status put in a federal database that’s then used against them. And they don’t want to have to prove their vaccine status to strangers, especially nosy employers or government officials.

Some states have already acted on this, banning government entities or even private venues from asking for proof of vaccination. In calling for a statewide ban on vaccine passports, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis argued, “You have a right to participate in society without them asking you to divulge this type of health information like just to go to a movie, just to go to a ball game.”

But there’s another way of looking at this: Vaccine passports could be used to unlock more freedoms. New York, for example, has told private businesses that they’ll be exempted from social distancing requirements if they ask for proof of vaccination or a negative coronavirus test. Other states are leveraging similar standards for masking and social distancing, letting people drop the precaution and restrictions if they show they’re vaccinated.

As Jha put it, “Freedom cuts in both directions.” Yes, of course it infringes on some level of privacy to have to share your vaccine status with a bunch of strangers. But the alternative also hinders your freedom: Without a way to prove vaccine status, everyone from individuals to businesses to government agencies will likely be more cautious — and that will likely lead to a reduced ability for everyone to do things with any sense of safety.

We’re already seeing this in Florida. One cruise line has warned that it might have to dock in other states as a result of Florida’s vaccine passport ban, since it wants to ensure that people on board are fully vaccinated. So Floridians won’t have their privacy infringed in a narrow sense, but they’re also missing out on potential activities that they could take up if vaccine passports were allowed.

To this end, some experts argued the best way to frame and actually use vaccine passport requirements would be to make them a reward instead of a punishment. So maybe people could go into the office without wearing a mask if they prove they’re vaccinated, or maybe employers could make those who are vaccinated eligible for a pay bonus (as Amazon is doing for new hires).

“We have to make sure not to penalize people,” Jennifer Nuzzo, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told me. “In public health, an overarching principle is you want people to partake willingly — to be partners in this work. You try to use restrictions as a last resort.”

But if the country rejects vaccine passports on privacy grounds, it risks repeating the same kind of mistake it’s made repeatedly throughout the pandemic, resulting in less safety and freedom in the long term. Consider South Korea’s test-and-trace system: It required the public to give up some measure of privacy through apps that could track people’s location and Covid-19 status, so potential cases could be tracked down and isolated. But the result was actually much more freedom than many Americans had over the past year — as South Koreans could go to nightclubs, bars, and movie theaters with few to no restrictions and next to no concern about their risk of catching the virus.

America’s all-or-nothing thinking produced some of the worst Covid-19 outcomes anywhere in the world, as much of the US widely shut down anyway and recorded some of the highest rates of coronavirus deaths. Vaccine passports offer a chance to seize America’s one success against Covid-19 — the vaccines — and break from its awful record against the virus.

Vaccine passports could speed up America’s return to normal

America has made incredible progress on vaccines, getting at least one dose to nearly half of its population and pulling ahead of peers like Canada and the European Union. Given that the US overall did a much worse job on Covid-19 deaths than many of its peers, its achievements on the vaccination front are all the more impressive.

But in the past few weeks, this kind of progress has slowed. The daily vaccination rate averaged nearly 3.4 million in mid-April; it’s less than 1.9 million as of May 17. Canada and Europe have also caught up to America’s vaccination rates, measured as people getting at least one dose, in recent weeks.

Biden has promised that America should be able to return to normal by July 4, once about 70 percent of adults — roughly 60 percent of the country — get at least one dose. But the slowdown threatens America’s path to that return to normal.

Vaccine passports offer a way to reverse the slowdown: In promising Americans a material reward for vaccination by letting them shed their masks or stop social distancing, and actually holding people accountable for vaccination, the US could push more people to get the jab.

Some research has backed this up. A study from the UCLA Covid-19 Health and Politics Project found people would be more likely to get the vaccine if it meant they could go maskless. That included Republicans, who are now the biggest holdout group for vaccines: They were 50 percent more likely to say they’ll get a vaccine if they would no longer have to wear a mask. Meanwhile, outreach programs had little to no effect, the study found.

The key is “things that actually affect people’s lives, not just informational things,” Lynn Vavreck, principal investigator of the UCLA Covid-19 Health and Politics Project, told me.

Similarly, surveys from the Kaiser Family Foundation have found that about a third of the most vaccine-hesitant would get the shot if it were required. That kind of mandate could be enforced with a vaccine passport.

There are genuine concerns that such a mandate could backfire. Nuzzo argued that some people would have their anti-vaccine views hardened by governments trying to force them to get vaccinated. That’s why she prefers a carrot over a stick when it comes to vaccination efforts.

“We’ve not done enough work to address people’s questions, concerns, and hesitations,” Nuzzo said. “You take someone who is generally uncomfortable but willing to have a conversation, and you make it about them and an infringement on their liberties, and then they wind up getting more hardline on their views about the vaccines than they otherwise would have been.”

So, in practice, maybe a vaccine passport could be used to get better seats at a baseball game, lose the mask or stop physical distancing at a concert, or unlock activities, such as cruise ships, that weren’t possible before — incentives to a normal life, not restrictions. These are things already happening in some places, but making them truly national could up the incentive without leading to a backlash.

The goal should be to get America to normal as quickly and safely as possible. We likely won’t be at zero risk of the coronavirus anytime soon. And there are genuine threats that remain, from the variants to the possibility of a fall or winter surge. But vaccine passports offer a stronger guarantee of safety, minimizing those risks further than simply vaccinating as much of the population as possible and hoping for the best.

After a year in which America repeatedly failed to stop the spread of Covid-19, we are finally getting something right with the vaccines. We should make the best of this moment of victory — doing everything in our power to ensure we can all benefit from this medical miracle. Vaccine passports are our ticket to doing that.

Before 2010, scientists knew very little about how the sensation of touch begins its journey into a person’s consciousness. They knew that nerve endings help carry the message from different parts of our bodies to our brains. But they didn’t know what kind of receptor on the nerve ending causes the message to fire — for example, when a person touches an ice cube or places a hand on a hot stove. You could say that researchers understood the wires, but not the light switch.

Then came Ardem Patapoutian.

In 2010, Patapoutian and his colleagues at the Scripps Research Institute discovered the proteins that serve as two kinds of switches — proteins called Piezo1 and Piezo2 (piezo is Greek for the verb “to press”). This week, Patapoutian shared a Nobel prize with David Julius, who similarly discovered how sensations of heat and cold enter our awareness.

In mammals like humans, piezo receptors transmit mechanical sensations to the nervous system. When cells that contain these piezo receptors are stretched, the receptors open up, letting in ions (charged particles) and setting off an electrical pulse.

But each type of receptor has a slightly different use. Piezo1 is part of our body’s built-in blood pressure monitoring system, as well as other internal systems that rely on pressure-sensing. Piezo2, on the other hand, is “the principle mechanosensor for touch and proprioception,” Patapoutian told me in 2019.

That is, without Piezo2, we couldn’t feel another person’s hand graze our own.

Proprioception, which also relies on Piezo2, is less well-known than the sense of touch, but it’s sometimes referred to as the body’s “sixth” sense. It’s our sense of where our bodies are in three-dimensional space.

It’s easier to explain proprioception with a demonstration. If you put a cup out in front of you and then close your eyes, you can still find the cup with your hand. Proprioception is what guides your intuition of how far to move your hand and in which direction.

“It’s truly fascinating that we are not aware of it,” Patapoutian said of proprioception during a 2019 interview with Vox. “When I give lectures, even to college students or graduate students, I sometimes ask: “How many people know of proprioception?” Even specialized biologists often don’t know anything about it.”

I spoke to Patapoutian for a story about people who are missing Piezo2 receptors in their bodies because of a genetic inheritance. When they close their eyes, “it’s like I am lost,” one of them told me. With their eyes closed, they cannot reach for the cup in front of them. They have no idea where it is. They have no idea where their arms are in space.

Patapoutian helped me understand that the human sense of touch contains multitudes — and to this day, scientists don’t fully understand it. But as scientists learn more about touch receptors, they’re also figuring out how to tend to a body that’s in pain.

This conversation, which took place in 2019, has been edited for length and clarity.

Brian Resnick

What is the sense of touch?

Ardem Patapoutian

We think about the five senses: vision, olfaction, taste, hearing, and touch. If you really start digging deep into touch, it’s so different than the rest of the senses.

When you talk about touch, there’s so many modalities to it: There’s different physical forces we sense, like temperature and mechanical force. There’s itch. There’s this [spectrum] of pleasant touch to noxious to painful.

It’s a very complex system. The demarcation of when pleasant touch ends and painful touch starts is actually very flexible. If you have a sunburn, for example, the same amount of touch that could have been pleasant becomes painful.

All of what I was just talking about is sensation on skin.

Again, if you put on top of it proprioception and internal organ sensation, it’s a very complicated sense that we don’t really understand. There’s no totally, well-agreed terminology even to describe clearly what we mean by touch and somatosensation.

Brian Resnick

How is proprioception related to touch?

Ardem Patapoutian

Proprioception is dependent on your sensory system detecting muscle stretch. When that muscle gets stretched, these nerve endings that are wrapped around it can sense it. Piezo2 is actually sitting right at the ends of these nerves, where [they] wrap around the muscle.

When you close your eyes and touch your nose, how are you doing this? What’s the information that you’re basing this on? It’s all about learning, as you grow up, to sense how much each of these muscles are being stretched when you’re making these complex motions of your hand. From that, you know exactly where things are.

People sometimes call it muscle memory. It’s actually mostly these proprioceptive neurons that are giving you this understanding of where your limbs are compared to your body — simply from detecting how much your tendons and muscles are being stretched.

Brian Resnick

Touch and proprioception use the same receptor: Piezo2. But all those other sensations you described — temperature, itch, pain — do those all enter us through different receptors? Is it the case that all these different types of touch feelings have a different specific molecule responsible for them?

Ardem Patapoutian

Absolutely, the molecules are different. There are temperature sensors at very different ranges of temperature. Cold, heat, warm are all different.

From 2000 to 2010, my lab studied temperature sensation. We, for example, identified the first cold-activated ion channel. It ended up also being the receptor for menthol. Anytime you use one of these chewing gums or toothpastes that gives that cooling sensation in your mouth, it hijacks the cold-activated channel.

Brian Resnick

Is the goal to try to find the sensor responsible for each sensation?

Ardem Patapoutian

Yeah. What seems to have worked is starting with a very reductionist approach, in the sense of finding the sensor.

Brian Resnick

Are some of these sensors still elusive?

Ardem Patapoutian

Absolutely. Without Piezo2, you don’t have touch, you don’t have proprioception. However, acute touch — the hammer hitting your finger “ouch” kind of feeling — the identity of these ion channels that account for acute pain is still unknown.

Brian Resnick

I don’t know if this gets more into philosophy than science, but are we just the sum of all these inputs?

Ardem Patapoutian

I think the clear thing one has to realize is that sensory biology is not telling us about reality. It is representing reality.

[Reality is] very related to these senses. But that’s the thing I would emphasize — it’s kind of an approximation. We’re interpreting the world according to what sensory systems we have.

Brian Resnick

I’m thinking about proprioception. I watched someone without Piezo2 receptors try to touch a ball on a table in front of her with her eyes closed. And she couldn’t do it. I asked her, “What does it feel like when your eyes are closed?” And she said, “It’s like I’m lost.”

Then I tried to think what I feel when I close my eyes and can sense the locations of objects around me. And I don’t have a word for it.

Ardem Patapoutian

It’s consciousness. That’s what I keep going back to.

Brian Resnick

Is that just pure consciousness? It’s just awareness?

Ardem Patapoutian

I think I would get into trouble if I called proprioception consciousness. But I actually think, at the most basic level, a physical aspect of consciousness requires proprioception.

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Every year, malaria kills more than 400,000 people, most of them children. There has been significant progress against the disease in the past few decades — death rates have fallen nearly in half since 2000 — but there’s still a long way to go.

For decades, researchers have been working on developing a vaccine. It hasn’t been easy. Malaria, a parasite infection, is hard to vaccinate against, and many attempted vaccines haven’t produced durable immunity.

But progress is happening. On Wednesday, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced it has given its stamp of approval to a vaccine against malaria for children for the first time, after encouraging results from a pilot study that has reached hundreds of thousands of children across parts of sub-Saharan Africa since 2019. The vaccine, called Mosquirix and made by GlaxoSmithKline, is far from perfect — it produces about a 30 percent reduction in severe malaria in fully vaccinated children, which is lifesaving but smaller than would be hoped for.

But the WHO recommendation is a step forward in the fight against one of humanity’s deadliest remaining infectious disease enemies. It will likely lead to countries adding the vaccine to their childhood immunization programs starting immediately. And it’s only the first step of many to come. Researchers are already working to improve on Mosquirix, and with a combination of different approaches, it might be possible for the world to significantly cut down on malaria’s staggering human toll for good.

“This is a historic moment. The long-awaited malaria vaccine for children is a breakthrough for science, child health, and malaria control,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.

The malaria fight, explained

Malaria is a mosquito-borne disease that causes fever and chills, and in severe cases anemia, seizures, and respiratory problems. With treatment, it’s very rarely fatal. Nonetheless, it is estimated that the approximately 220 million cases of malaria each year cause about 400,000 deaths. Even preventing 40 percent of cases saves many lives, and since part of the malaria parasite’s life cycle is inside a human host, disrupting some cases will benefit even the people who are not conferred immunity.

Researchers have been working for more than 30 years on the line of research that led to this malaria vaccine. While widespread use of insecticide-treated bednets, preventive treatment, and indoor spraying have driven malaria deaths down significantly since 2000, the gains from those approaches have been flattening in recent years.

Continued progress against malaria is going to require new tools in the toolbox — and Mosquirix, also known as RTS,S, looks like a promising one.

In clinical trials, the vaccine prevented about 40 percent of cases of malaria, and 30 percent of the most severe cases. That’s much, much lower than the success rate of vaccines for most other early childhood diseases. The measles vaccine, by comparison, is 97 percent effective, and the chickenpox vaccine prevents 85 percent of cases and nearly 100 percent of severe cases.

But with malaria killing hundreds of thousands of people every year, even a partially effective vaccine can be a lifesaver for many, many people. Recent research modeling the effects of a widespread Mosquirix rollout estimates that “5.3 million cases and 24,000 deaths could be averted” if we’re able to get the vaccine to the 30 million people at the greatest risk annually.

Evidence from the pilot rollout in Malawi also suggests that the vaccine works well in combination with existing malaria-fighting options like the distribution of malaria-preventing drugs to children in high-risk areas. That’s important, because the vaccine isn’t sufficient on its own.

“Many global health organizations have worked long and hard to make an efficacious malaria vaccine a reality. There’s still an imperative to sustain existing interventions alongside, so we’ll be looking for donors to up their total contributions to fight against malaria to incorporate this new tool into their armaments,” Amanda Glassman, the executive vice president at the Center for Global Development, said in a statement.

The vaccine is administered as a series of four shots — three a month apart, and then a fourth a year later — and the effectiveness of further booster shots is being tested. With more than 2 million shots administered in the pilot programs to date, very few serious side effects have been reported, so the vaccine’s safety profile looks good. The vaccine is also relatively cost-effective, costing about $5 a dose.

The WHO approval does not, by itself, ensure widespread vaccine access. Instead, now that the organization has made its recommendation, the next steps are “funding decisions from the global health community for broader rollout, and country decision-making on whether to adopt the vaccine as part of national malaria control strategies,” the WHO says.

But many countries follow WHO recommendations in setting their national health policy, and the recommendation is expected to spur countries to add this vaccine to their anti-malaria toolbox. And the WHO announcement will hopefully also spur funders to step up and help pay for ensuring the vaccine reaches everyone who needs it.

Why it’s hard to vaccinate against malaria

The Plasmodium parasite that causes malaria in humans needs both blood-sucking insects and humans for its life cycle. It grows inside a mosquito and is transferred to a human host when the mosquito bites them. Then the parasite migrates to the liver, replicates itself, and infects the blood — where it can be taken up by the bite of another mosquito.

When the parasite is in the blood, it causes fever, chills, and flu-like illness. Healthy adults usually recover, but those with a weaker immune system — especially young children and pregnant people — can die. In addition, it’s also one of the leading causes of miscarriages and stillbirths in the world.

(Older people who live in regions where malaria is endemic are, surprisingly, not especially vulnerable. The theory is that after sufficient exposure to malaria over a lifetime, the immune system develops a general anti-parasite response that might be more durable than malaria-specific immunity.)

In rich countries, malaria was largely eradicated in the mid-20th century through mass spraying of insecticides, including ones like DDT that have since been banned due to their ecological consequences. But many poor countries still have endemic malaria, and the range of malarial mosquitos is expanding due to climate change.

Vaccinating against malaria is tricky. Parasites are much more complex than viruses, with many possible sites that the immune system might be trained to recognize.

“Malaria vaccine [development] has been a graveyard for really great ideas,” Derek Lowe, a researcher who writes about drug discovery, told me earlier this year. “We’ve learned about a lot of stuff that doesn’t work.”

Targeting the parasite once it’s in the blood, for example, has been tried repeatedly but has never succeeded.

Exposing the body to dead or neutralized Plasmodium? A dead end. Researchers have been working on this for decades, and progress has been rare.

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The earliest success stories of vaccination involved vaccines against diseases that produce lifelong immunity, like smallpox and polio. Those are viruses, so they’re much simpler to target. And since you can’t be reinfected with those diseases, the vaccine only needs to provoke the same immune response as the disease did originally, and the patient is safe for life.

But in the case of malaria, naturally acquired immunity against it typically is only partial and fades out in a few years. Researchers have been working for decades to figure out how a vaccine can induce durable immunity, and most of that work has ended in frustrating failures.

That’s now changing. Mosquirix is the first vaccine to get promising results, but other vaccines have actually shown even higher efficacy in early trials. A recent phase 2 clinical trial of a malaria vaccine called R21/MM found 77 percent efficacy — a big step up, if it holds up in larger-scale trials.

And with many other vaccine candidates making their way through trials, these two early vaccines are likely to be joined by others.

The progress of malaria vaccine candidates is a story that’s rarely in the headlines but is big news for the world. Lessening the burden of this deadly disease for millions of people will save and improve a lot of lives. Vaccination is one of our most powerful tools against infectious disease, and our recent successes at bringing it to bear on one of our deadliest enemies is a triumph worth celebrating.

Kids are back in school. The federal government seems to be on the verge of approving vaccines for younger children. And as more adults are fully vaccinated, much of the US is slowly returning to normal.

But there remains a lingering question, particularly for parents of young children: What is the risk of Covid-19 to kids, especially after the rise of the delta variant?

There were reports this summer of more children under 18 falling ill with Covid-19, and some pediatric hospital wards filling up, leading many to believe that the pandemic is now a serious threat to children, too. At the very least, it’s abundantly clear now that children can be infected by and transmit the coronavirus.

But experts maintain that the risks most children face from Covid-19 are low, even with the delta variant. “The risk in children has not changed with the new variant as far as we can tell,” Betsy Herold, a pediatric infectious disease physician at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine, told me.

Herold estimates that less than 2 percent of children known to be infected by the coronavirus are hospitalized, and less than 0.03 percent of those infected die. It’s difficult to draw direct comparisons to American adults now that two-thirds in the US are vaccinated, while most kids aren’t. But before widespread vaccination, about 10 percent of people infected with Covid-19 were hospitalized, and around 1 percent died.

While there isn’t as much research on children and Covid-19 as experts would prefer, the data we do have suggests the risk of longer-term consequences, like long Covid or MIS-C (in which several organs become inflamed), is also very low.

The delta variant is both more transmissible and more widespread than earlier variants, which has meant that even a low-risk disease has filled up many pediatric wards. But while delta has made more children sick, it has not made infected children sicker — it doesn’t appear to be linked to worse disease among kids, experts said.

That’s still a public health problem. If the risk of death for children is around 0.01 percent and 1,000 children are infected, you would expect no deaths. But if 1 million are infected, you would expect 100 deaths. Increased transmission, not a deadlier virus, helps explain why pediatric wards are more crowded now than they were earlier in the pandemic, and shows that even a low-risk disease could lead to many deaths if enough children catch it. With nearly 5 million children with confirmed infections in the US so far, we are seeing that in the real world.

We also don’t know exactly why children are at much lower risk of Covid-19, and the situation could still change — a variant could evolve that proves more dangerous to children.

But experts, on the whole, are optimistic so far that children’s natural defenses against the virus have held up. That resilience isn’t just good news for parents; it’s a hopeful sign for the future of Covid-19. As the virus becomes endemic, future generations might be regularly exposed to SARS-CoV-2 at a young age. But children’s natural defenses are likely to crush it, building immunity, piece by piece, that could help shield them for a long time. Coupled with the vaccines, the generational buildup in natural immunity could, over time, defang the virus.

Kids are still at relatively low risk of severe Covid-19

Compared to other age groups, people under 18 are at much lower risk of serious illness and death from Covid-19. The death rate for Americans under 18 who are infected is about 0.01 percent, compared to 5 percent for 65- to 74-year-olds, 12 percent for 75- to 84-year-olds, and 25 percent for people 85 and older. In total, people 50 and up make up 94 percent of Covid-19 deaths in the US, based on federal data.

“We’ve known from the beginning that Covid is relatively mild in children compared to adults — and especially older adults,” Shamez Ladhani, a pediatric infectious diseases specialist at St. George’s Hospital in London, told me.

The risk is even lower for children under 10, experts told me. Infants under 1 year old might be at higher risk than slightly older children due to their immature immune systems, but the data is way too thin to draw any conclusions for infants.

Another way to gauge risk is to compare Covid-19 to other significant causes of death. Covid-19 has killed 280 children under 18 from January through September 2021, the time span in which the alpha and delta variants were active. Flu and pneumonia, heart disease, drowning, guns, and motor vehicles were all deadlier to children during the same time periods annually from 2015 to 2019 (the latest years with available data).

As one example: The number of children under 18 who died in vehicle crashes from January through September in recent years was nearly six times higher than the number of children who died of Covid-19 from January through September of this year.

These numbers can help contextualize risk. “One of the best ways to communicate risk — and for me, personally, to even think about risk — is to compare the risk of something I don’t understand to the risk of something I do,” Stephen Kissler, an infectious disease researcher at Harvard, told me.

Covid-19 deaths are likely lower than they would be if people had not engaged in social distancing and other precautions, meaning they could increase as the country shifts back to a pre-pandemic normal. But many parts of the country already have undergone that shift with only a relatively small increase in Covid-19 deaths among children, with surges concentrated among older adults, even as the delta variant spread.

What about other risks of Covid-19 among children?

One concern is multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, or MIS-C, which appears in some children after a Covid-19 infection. But the risk of MIS-C is also very low: Around 4,700 MIS-C cases and 41 deaths were confirmed in the US as of August 27, 2021, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. At that point, there were 3.7 million total Covid-19 cases among children 17 and under in the US.

Long Covid is also a concern. A huge problem is that the research on long Covid in kids is very thin — so thin that some experts didn’t feel comfortable talking about the issue much, if at all.

Still, the research we do have, experts said, suggests long Covid is not a big threat to kids. Looking at a sample of 1,700 children ages 5 to 17 in the UK, a study in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health found that less than 2 percent experienced symptoms for at least eight weeks, and symptom severity appeared to decrease over time.

One possible explanation: Long Covid seems to happen more often after severe illness, which is less common for children. A study analyzing private health care claims, by the nonprofit FAIR Health, found hospitalized Covid-19 patients were almost twice as likely to develop “post-Covid conditions” as patients who were symptomatic but not hospitalized.

Finally, there’s the risk children’s transmission may pose to others. “If kids continue to get infected, others will continue to get infected who are unvaccinated — and the virus will continue to mutate,” Jen Kates, director of global health and HIV policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told me. “It’s not just that we need to protect the kids. It’s this larger question.”

Children do appear to transmit the coronavirus less than adults do, Ladhani said. One possible explanation: Kids are less likely to develop symptoms than older groups, and have those symptoms for shorter periods. And the coronavirus is less likely to spread if it’s not being coughed or sneezed out into the world.

Children’s defenses against Covid-19 have held up, even against delta

The coronavirus, thankfully, remains a small threat to children overall. What’s less clear is why kids haven’t been hit harder by Covid-19.

The explanations so far are largely speculative.

One possibility is children’s immune systems are better built to deal with novel viruses. After all, to young immune systems, most viruses are novel. Outside of some defenses passed down by parents and the protection from childhood vaccines, kids adapt to the pathogens around them through repeated exposure. So when a new coronavirus began to spread, the theory goes, children were better able to deal with the threat. But for adults, especially older ones, encountering a new pathogen is rarer, and so their immune systems perhaps haven’t been able to deal with a novel threat to the same degree as their younger counterparts.

Two studies, by Herold, point in that direction, finding that the adaptive part of the immune system appears to be more active in adults than children. Herold suggested that’s because kids’ “innate response is better at dealing with Covid and perhaps other novel pathogens in general.” (For more on this research, I recommend Smriti Mallapaty’s recent article in Nature.)

Another possibility is that children, generally, have fewer health problems that put them at risk of severe illness from Covid-19. A range of comorbidities are known to make the virus a much bigger threat, including asthma, obesity, cancer, and heart disease. Some of these are more or as likely during childhood, but many, like cancer and heart disease, are more likely to happen with older age. As a result, kids “will cope better when they are infected,” Ladhani said.

There are other theories, from social and biological differences in coronavirus exposure to potential side effects of non-Covid vaccines. But, again, this field of research is just starting, and no one has a sure explanation — the ultimate contributor could be something we don’t even know about yet.

Given the uncertainty, experts also can’t say that kids’ protection against Covid-19 will hold true forever. It’s possible a future variant will end up more dangerous for children, even if that hasn’t been the case with delta. It’s yet another reason to mitigate the spread of the virus as much as possible: to deny it more chances to replicate and mutate into something that children’s defenses might not so easily conquer.

Different people will have different risk tolerances

The data isn’t going to lead every parent to the same conclusions. Some people want to wait to return to normal until Covid-19 cases decline, after the current wave of delta fully eases (as is already starting to happen), or until everyone can get vaccinated, including kids. Others see higher vaccination rates in their community or nationwide as a prerequisite to easing up on precautions. Many are already moving on, at least to some degree, ready to put the virus and its impacts on day-to-day life behind.

Among the experts I’ve spoken to over the past several months, there are still divisions on when the time is right to ease up. “These are really hard, personal decisions,” Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told me. “There’s not a one-size-fits-all.”

There have been some points of agreement. For one, some places with lots of children, particularly schools, should do what they can to stop transmission, such as widespread testing, masking, and better ventilation. As soon as a vaccine is available, children should get the shots for an extra layer of protection, not just for themselves but also to prevent wider coronavirus spread and to block new variants.

At the same time, experts also widely agree the general risk of Covid-19 illness will likely never be zero again. The virus will be weakened over time through natural immunity and vaccination, but it will become endemic — continuing to spread in some form, perhaps in new variants, and potentially causing waves of severe illness and death on occasion. That suggests people will have to tolerate some level of risk going forward. And at least for kids, Covid-19 already isn’t too far from the risks people widely accepted before the pandemic.

Kids’ resilience against Covid-19 offers a way out of the pandemic

As the world transitions from the pandemic to endemic stage of this coronavirus, children’s natural defenses against Covid-19 could prove crucial — providing a relatively safe route to much higher levels of natural immunity across the population.

“Over time, as SARS-CoV-2 becomes an endemic virus, basically everybody is going to get exposed to it multiple times by the time they turn 5 or 10,” Kissler, the infectious disease researcher, said. The repeated exposure — and build-up of immunity it produces — could turn the virus into something more like the common cold or seasonal flu than the pathogen that’s warped our lives since the spring of 2020.

Obviously, the continued spread among children would be a big problem if kids generally got very sick with Covid-19. Since that’s not the case, the process can play out with few risks to kids themselves — especially if it’s bolstered by childhood vaccines.

There are some lingering questions: How durable is natural and vaccine-induced immunity to Covid-19? What will be the earliest age at which someone can get vaccinated? Will a new variant overcome the effectiveness of the population’s immunity that’s been built up? The answers could shape, or completely alter, how the transition to endemic Covid-19 plays out.

But other viruses have followed this path. Earlier strains of the flu that killed up to millions of people worldwide are still present in some form today. But as humans have over time been repeatedly exposed to these viruses, they’ve built population-level immunity to what once was a more vicious threat. And a deadly pandemic in 1889, originally believed to be caused by the flu, may have actually been caused by a coronavirus that is still with us as one of the many pathogens causing a common cold.

Coupled with vaccines and potential medical breakthroughs in treatment, Covid-19 could follow a similar trajectory. The wonder of vaccines is they can speed up this process, giving people the immunity that they once had to earn through a serious — and at times deadly — bout of sickness.

In short: The world has been fortunate, throughout the pandemic, that kids aren’t hit hard by Covid-19. But that luck also may extend to the pandemic’s aftermath — to ensure we can move past the coronavirus once and for all.

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Playdates are ruining all the fun

March 23, 2022 | News | No Comments

It’s become a time-honored tradition in certain segments of American society: two families cross-reference their respective calendars to find a spot free of school or soccer or other obligations. On the appointed day, one child travels to the other’s house, typically accompanied by a parent. The children build a Lego village or glue googly eyes on felt or participate in some other ostensibly wholesome activity. Snacks are consumed. The parents, meanwhile, hang out and complain lightly about their children or spouses, stopping periodically to intervene in tantrums or boredom or failures of sharing.

This is — or was — the playdate. Prior to 2020, it had become the primary mode of non-school social life for a lot of American kids, replacing the more unstructured play that many millennials and Gen X-ers remember from their childhoods. As Charis Granger-Mbugua, a Georgia mother of two, put it, “that’s how children play now.”

The pandemic, of course, put a stop to playdates for a lot of families. Granger-Mbugua’s two children, now 7 and almost 5, barely saw anyone outside the family from March 2020 until this spring. “They were super isolated for that entire school year,” Granger-Mbugua said.

Now that adults and teenagers can be vaccinated, and shots for younger kids are on the horizon, families are starting to have playdates again. “We’re already seeing birthday parties, we’re already seeing weddings and funerals,” Tamara Mose, a sociology professor at Brooklyn College and the author of The Playdate: Parents, Children, and the New Expectations of Play, told Vox. As more kids get vaccinated, “people will feel more comfortable, and so the playdates will continue.”

The return of the playdate, though, may not be an unalloyed good. Some fear that parent-organized socializing deprives kids of the chance to explore and build self-sufficiency. “It’s a lost childhood,” Stacey Gill, a mom of two who has written about playdates, told Vox.

The rise of the scheduled, structured “date” for children in the decades preceding the pandemic also increased the burden on parents, especially moms, who were expected to spend their weekends curating social experiences for their kids.

Then there were the social implications. For middle- and upper-middle-class families, playdates could be exclusionary — a way for parents to shore up connections with others they saw as “like them” in terms of class, race, politics, and a host of other factors. “You’re basically selecting the friends of your children based on the networks you’re creating as adults,” Mose said.

Now that children’s play, like so many other sectors of society, has been disrupted by Covid-19, some say there’s a chance to rethink what it should look like. We might not go back to the days when kids “went outside and didn’t come in till the streetlights came on,” as Granger-Mbugua remembers from her childhood. But there’s an opportunity to make play more equitable, less labor-intensive for parents, and maybe even more fun. As Gill put it, “kids need a little more freedom to just be kids.”

The playdate as we know it was invented in the ’90s

The playdate is a fairly new phenomenon. Growing up in the late ’70s and early ’80s, Gill remembers spending Saturday mornings playing in the basement and watching cartoons with her sister. At a certain point, their mom would send them outside to play — and lock the door. If they got together with other kids, it wasn’t anything organized: “You just hung out,” Gill said.

Beginning in the ’90s, however, middle- and upper-middle-class parents, especially in cities, began pulling their kids back from unstructured play in public spaces out of concerns about crime. Highly publicized kidnapping and child murder cases such as that of Polly Klaas in 1993, along with the rise of crime shows like America’s Most Wanted, helped contribute to a climate of fear among more affluent American parents. Over time, more play took place inside families’ homes and other private spaces. “It felt safer for parents to have something that was organized and looked after,” Mose said.

By the 2000s, the word “playdate” — meaning organized play for children, typically directed by parents — was in common parlance. For parents, such a date wasn’t just a time for kids to get together: “It was a presentation of self,” Mose said. “You wanted to present yourself in a particular manner so that parents would know that you were a ‘good parent.’”

That meant providing the right kind of food — “people really snubbed their nose at fast food or junk food,” Mose said. It also meant offering not just supervision but, ideally, a fun yet wholesome activity to keep kids entertained. Far from locking them out to play in the street, Gill joked, “You have to have, like, a craft fair at your house.”

All this was also, of course, a performance of a certain class status. It’s no accident that the concept of playdates started with upper-middle-class families and trickled down to the middle class, remaining less common among working-class people. The requirements of a playdate, from healthy food (ideally organic) to art supplies to a private indoor space big enough for multiple kids, could get expensive quickly.

That performance of affluent, “good” parenting wasn’t for kids — it was for other parents, who often joined their kids on playdates, especially at younger ages. “Kids might be in one room playing together but the parents are socializing in another room,” Mose said.

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When planning play for their kids, parents would select people they wanted to get to know better, often because they shared common traits from neighborhoods to values. “People tend to find people like themselves,” Mose said. “That’s who they feel comfortable with.”

That tendency, coupled with the expense of playdates, led to a stratification along race and class lines. While kids organically coming together at a playground might form friendships across such divisions (at least within the limits of America’s segregated neighborhoods), playdate culture instead reinforced socioeconomic rifts as wealthier parents encouraged their kids to socialize within a carefully curated social bubble.

For those able to afford them, though, playdates essentially became a form of networking — the kid-friendly version of having the boss over to dinner. “In an office, you tend to network with certain types of people and exclude other types of people, and it’s a similar type of interaction when we have a playdate,” Mose said. “We tend to create an environment that’s sanitized in order to facilitate certain social networks.”

The creation of such an environment may not have been conscious — few parents would say they set out to segregate their children’s social worlds. But it led to the concentration of a number of advantages — from the small, like organic snacks, to the large, like a group of well-connected and affluent parent-friends — among those who could afford the entry fee to the playdate in-crowd. It may not be the most glaring example, but playdate culture belongs in any conversation about “nice white parents” and privilege-hoarding.

It was also just a huge amount of work for parents. Most of that work fell to moms, who historically have shouldered not just the majority of child care responsibilities but also the mental load of juggling kids’ schedules. The demands of playdates are probably part of the reason that parents today spend significantly more time on child care every week than they did in the 1960s, even though many more moms are also working outside the home.

The demands of kids’ social calendars meant parents could “no longer have a life,” Gill said. “I understand when the kids are young, they need constant attention and supervision. But it just extended indefinitely, to forever.”

Yet throughout the 2000s and 2010s, parents kept shuttling their kids to playdates. Even if you weren’t consciously trying to “network,” the custom could be hard to break out of. After all, letting children play unsupervised is now deeply stigmatized — and for low-income people and people of color, who already face discrimination as parents in America, it can even lead to arrest. For middle- and upper-middle-class kids, meanwhile, opportunities to just “hang out” have fallen victim to the rise of extracurricular activities like organized sports.

In her neighborhood outside New York City, “there’s a million kids you could play with,” Gill said. “Only now you can’t play with them because they’re all scheduled.”

The pandemic put a stop to playdates — for a while

That is, they were scheduled. Then, in March 2020, millions of Americans began sheltering in place to help limit the spread of Covid-19. “For many people, playdates simply ceased,” Mose said. “We were all afraid of people spreading germs, and as we know, children are very germy.”

Not everyone took Covid-19 protocols seriously, and there has been widespread disagreement over how to weigh the risks of the virus among children, who are less likely than adults to become severely ill. Still, for many American children, the first year or so of the pandemic was a very isolated time. Granger-Mbugua’s son and daughter, for example, didn’t have playdates, and other social outlets like in-person school, church, and storytime at the local library were on hold as well. “We didn’t have a lot of interaction with friends,” Granger-Mbugua said. Her kids “have some family, but that’s about it.”

As the pandemic wore on, however, families started experimenting with socializing again. Some formed “pods” with one or two other families so that kids could play while still limiting exposure. Others allowed their kids to see friends, but only outdoors. “Playdates changed in terms of location,” Mose said.

Now, as American society inches toward reopening, playdates are fraught terrain for a lot of parents. It’s not just the risk of Covid-19, it’s also the etiquette — do kids wear masks in the house? Do adults? What about snack time? What if your approach to Covid-19 safety doesn’t align with that of your hosts (or guests)? Arguments among adults over Covid-19 protocols — and the politicization of those protocols — have caused a lot of anxiety among kids, Eugene Beresin, executive director of the Clay Center for Young Healthy Minds at Massachusetts General Hospital, told Vox. “It’s put a great deal of tension into certain situations.”

Tension or not, playdates are returning. “I think most people have already gone back” at least in some capacity, Mose said. And vaccines for children aged 5-11, which could arrive as soon as November, are likely to accelerate the process. “There will be a lot more freedom once everybody’s vaccinated,” Mose said. “Or a sense of freedom, anyway.”

The time may be ripe to rethink play

Many parents are looking forward to that day with bated breath. But rather than going back to playdates-as-usual, this time, when many families are rebuilding their social lives from scratch, could be an opportunity to reimagine what play should look like.

Part of that is rethinking who’s in charge of a child’s social life. “I think if we allowed it to be somewhat children-led, we would see a difference in how children play together,” Mose said. Adults may gravitate to people they perceive as being like them, but “children don’t have that lens yet when they’re little,” she explained. “They truly just want to play with whoever is nice to them.”

Giving kids more of a say in who they play with can make playdates less exclusionary, and open up the social world of the whole family to new people and experiences. “Our kids naturally have a diversity about them that they’re interested in exploring in terms of their outlook on social life,” Mose said.

Letting kids choose what they do at a playdate, within reason, is also important, Beresin said. Rather than setting up a craft fair in the living room, parents can let kids pick out their activities and work out any disagreements about what to play on their own (again, within reason). Offering choices helps kids feel empowered and like they have control over the situation, Beresin said.

After all, kids’ play is “a very, very important part of development,” Beresin said. “Play is the way they work out their anxieties, it’s the way they work out their conflicts, it’s the way they share with each other, it’s the way they learn how to be respectful of other kids.” Learning to be independent and make your own choices is part of that process, too.

It’s hard to imagine a return to the world that Gill or Granger-Mbugua remember from their childhoods, when kids ran around with little interference from adults. But even before the pandemic, some efforts were afoot to give kids a bit more autonomy in their play. “Adventure playgrounds,” for example, which deemphasize traditional play structures in favor of more interactive (and chaotic) elements like old electronic equipment and hammers, have spread across Europe and popped up in the US. One such playground on New York’s Governors Island explicitly bans parents.

The Free-Range Kids movement, meanwhile, advocates for more independence for children, including unsupervised play. Started in 2008 by a mom who was criticized for letting her 9-year-old take the subway alone, the movement has helped inspire laws in Utah and elsewhere that protect parents from prosecution if they let kids play or walk home by themselves.

Individual parents are also finding less regimented ways to help their kids socialize. “There’s a lot of anxiety that I feel around structured, organized play,” Granger-Mbugua said. “I really prefer more organic play in spaces where children are naturally together,” whether that’s a church function or a birthday party with extended family.

As pandemic restrictions lift, “I would like my children to get to know the people in the neighborhood, I would like to get them to know the people in their classes that they feel most comfortable with and pursue friendships and relationships that way,” Granger-Mbugua said. “I want my children to seek out friendships that feel good to them, and let me know, and then I will do my part to support that.”

Such a kid-centric approach may find adherents at a time when a lot of the strictures of pre-pandemic society, from wardrobes to office jobs, are being questioned. And for anyone wanting to reevaluate their own kids’ social lives in our new reality, Gill, for her part, advocates a back-to-basics approach: “Let them be. Let them figure it out. Let them use their brains.”

In other words: “Just let them play.”

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, has made our future vulnerability to biological pathogens — and what we can learn to help prevent the next pandemic — a salient concern. We don’t have much evidence one way or the other whether Covid’s emergence into the world was the result of a lab accident or a natural jump from animal to human. And while the US intelligence community’s current best guess is that the virus “probably was not genetically engineered,” the theory has been the subject of much debate and has not been definitively ruled out.

The many unknowns we confront underscore the need for a much bigger toolkit to deal with pathogenic threats than we currently have — which is why a recent paper about a new advance in tracing genetic editing is particularly exciting.

Bioengineering often leaves traces — characteristic patterns in the RNA or DNA of an engineered organism that are a product of a plethora of design decisions that go into synthetic biology. That fact about bioengineered genomes raises an interesting question: What if those traces that gene editing leaves behind were more like fingerprints? That is, what if it’s possible not just to tell if something was engineered but precisely where it was engineered?

That’s the idea behind genetic engineering attribution: the effort to develop tools that let us look at a genetically engineered sequence and determine which lab developed it. A big international contest among researchers earlier this year demonstrates that the technology is within our reach — though it’ll take lots of refining to move from impressive contest results to tools we can reliably use for bio detective work.

The contest, the Genetic Engineering Attribution Challenge, was sponsored by some of the leading bioresearch labs in the world. The idea was to challenge teams to develop techniques in genetic engineering attribution. The most successful entrants in the competition could predict, using machine-learning algorithms, which lab produced a certain genetic sequence with more than 80 percent accuracy, according to a new preprint summing up the results of the contest.

This may seem technical, but it could actually be fairly consequential in the effort to make the world safe from a type of threat we should all be more attuned to post-pandemic: bioengineered weapons and leaks of bioengineered viruses.

One of the challenges of preventing bioweapon research and deployment is that perpetrators can remain hidden — it’s difficult to find the source of a killer virus and hold them accountable.

But if it’s widely known that bioweapons can immediately and verifiably be traced right back to a bad actor, that could be a valuable deterrent.

It’s also extremely important for biosafety more broadly. If an engineered virus is accidentally leaked, tools like these would allow us to identify where they leaked from and know what labs are doing genetic engineering work with inadequate safety procedures.

The fingerprint of a virus

Hundreds of design choices go into genetic engineering: “what genes you use, what enzymes you use to connect them together, what software you use to make those decisions for you,” computational immunologist Will Bradshaw, a co-author on the paper, told me.

“The enzymes that people use to cut up the DNA cut in different patterns and have different error profiles,” Bradshaw says. “You can do that in the same way that you can recognize handwriting.”

Because different researchers with different training and different equipment have their own distinctive “tells,” it’s possible to look at a genetically engineered organism and guess who made it — at least if you’re using machine-learning algorithms.

To be clear, this work, called genetic engineering attribution, is very different from genetic engineering detection: it’s not about determining whether a sequence is engineered, but looking at sequences already known to be engineered and figuring out who built them.

The algorithms that are trained to do this work are fed data on more than 60,000 genetic sequences different labs produced. The idea is that, when fed an unfamiliar sequence, the algorithms are able to predict which of the labs they’ve encountered (if any) likely produced it.

A year ago, researchers at altLabs, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and other top bioresearch programs collaborated on the challenge, organizing a competition to find the best approaches to this biological forensics problem. The contest attracted intense interest from academics, industry professionals, and citizen scientists — one member of a winning team was a kindergarten teacher. Nearly 300 teams from all over the world submitted at least one machine-learning system for identifying the lab of origin of different sequences.

In that preprint paper (which is still undergoing peer review), the challenge’s organizers summarize the results: The competitors collectively took a big step forward on this problem. “Winning teams achieved dramatically better results than any previous attempt at genetic engineering attribution, with the top-scoring team and all-winners ensemble both beating the previous state-of-the-art by over 10 percentage points,” the paper notes.

The big picture is that researchers, aided by machine-learning systems, are getting really good at finding the lab that built a given plasmid, or a specific DNA strand used in gene manipulation.

The top-performing teams had 95 percent accuracy at naming a plasmid’s creator by one metric called “top 10 accuracy” — meaning if the algorithm identifies 10 candidate labs, the true lab is one of them. They had 82 percent top 1 accuracy — that is, 82 percent of the time, the lab they identified as the likely designer of that bioengineered plasmid was, in fact, the lab that designed it.

Top 1 accuracy is showy, but for biological detective work, top 10 accuracy is nearly as good: If you can narrow down the search for culprits to a small number of labs, you can then use other approaches to identify the exact lab.

There’s still a lot of work to do. The competition looked at only simple engineered plasmids; ideally, we’d have approaches that work for fully engineered viruses and bacteria. And the competition didn’t look at adversarial examples, where researchers deliberately try to conceal the fingerprints of their lab on their work.

How genetic fingerprinting can help keep the world safer

Knowing which lab produced a bioweapon can protect us in three ways, biosecurity researchers argued in Nature Communications last year.

First, “knowledge of who was responsible can inform response efforts by shedding light on motives and capabilities, and so mitigate the event’s consequences.” That is, figuring out who built something will also give us clues about the goals they might have had and the risk we might be facing.

Second, obviously, it allows the world to sanction and stop any lab or government that is producing bioweapons in violation of international law.

And third, the article argues, hopefully, if these capabilities are widely known, they make the use of bioweapons much less appealing in the first place.

But the techniques have more mundane uses as well.

Bradshaw told me he envisions applications of the technology could be used to find accidental lab leaks, identify plagiarism in academic papers, and protect biological intellectual property — and those applications will validate and extend the tools for the really critical uses.

The past year and a half should have us all thinking about how devastating pandemic disease can be — and about whether the precautions being taken by research labs and governments are really adequate to prevent the next pandemic.

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The answer, to my mind, is that we’re not doing enough, but more sophisticated biological forensics could certainly help. Genetic engineering attribution is still a new field. With more effort, it’ll likely be possible to one day make attribution possible on a much larger scale and to do it for viruses and bacteria. That could make for a much safer future.

Correction, October 25, 9:50 am: A previous version of this story stated that SARS-CoV-2 had been definitively proven not to be a bioengineered virus. While an August 2021 US intelligence report concluded, “Most agencies … assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered,” and many scientists agree with that assessment, it was an overstatement to claim that the theory has been definitively ruled out. The introduction and conclusion of the story have been updated to reflect this lower level of certainty. (h/t to Alina Chan, biologist at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, for her critique and input)

What the oil industry still won’t tell us

March 23, 2022 | News | No Comments

Four executives from Big Oil — “the richest, most powerful industry in human history,” according to environmentalist Bill McKibben — testified before Congress on Thursday at a hearing meant to reveal how the oil business has undermined government action on climate change.

The House Committee on Oversight and Reform questioned the CEOs of ExxonMobil, BP, Chevron, and Shell, alongside the presidents of two powerful lobbying groups, the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the US Chamber of Commerce. The Democratic lawmakers who control the committee interrogated the executives about how their institutions misled the public and funded misinformation campaigns that questioned the severity of climate change.

But the executives, testifying virtually, were evasive. “As science has evolved and developed, our understanding has evolved and developed,” said ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods, answering a question about why his company rejected climate science throughout the 2000s, when scientists already agreed that global warming was an urgent threat. Republican lawmakers argued the hearing was a farce, a distraction from other issues, and a veiled attempt to ban oil production.

Big Oil’s big secrets about its climate change activities may begin to unravel in any paperwork committee staff can get their hands on. For 40 years, the oil industry has worked to delay and obstruct policies that would hurt the profitability of its products, even when their own scientists warned that burning fossil fuels would cause climate change. Thousands of pages of documents in the public record — obtained through lawsuits, leaks, and undercover videos — patch together a portrait of how the oil industry has fostered climate change denial.

The Oversight committee requested additional documents dating back to 2015, but so far witnesses “have failed to adequately comply with the Committee’s request,” according to a statement by Democratic lawmakers. When reached for comment, an API spokesperson countered that the group has been actively working to comply “and has already produced thousands of pages responsive to their request.”

After nearly five hours of questioning, House Oversight Committee Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) closed the hearing by announcing she would issue subpoenas for the documents the committee did not receive, saying it had received only financial reports, social media posts, and press releases that were already publicly available. Maloney called for detailed funding information, board memos, and senior executive communications to help the committee “understand their payments to shadow groups and to over 150 public relations companies and advertisements on social media, payments that today’s witnesses seem intent on continuing.”

“I do not take this step lightly,” Maloney added, saying that the committee’s goal is to “get to the bottom of the oil industry’s disinformation campaign, and with these subpoenas we will.”

Climate activists hope that this moment could be an inflection point for accountability in the oil industry, similar to when Congress investigated other industries that have profited from misleading the public, including tobacco, asbestos, and lead companies. “There’s ongoing pressure to get these companies to fess up in one way or the other, or pay up,” said Kert Davies, founder and director of the advocacy research group Climate Investigations Center, who has collected his own database of oil documents. “How and when that comes, and how much they can do to blunt that, is the drama that’s playing out this week.”

What secrets are oil companies still keeping from the public? There are at least five key areas Congress can dig into to discover the truth about Big Oil’s activities on climate change. The documents Democrats are after could also paint a fuller, more recent picture of the oil industry’s own climate change goals. Some purport to aim for net-zero emissions in the coming decades, but they could turn out to be hot air.

How much has the oil industry spent trying to undermine climate legislation?

In the words of one ExxonMobil lobbyist, the company has worked with “shadow groups” against early efforts to regulate the fossil fuel industry.

In June, the environmental advocacy group Greenpeace published a video of then-lobbyist Keith McCoy speaking on what he thought was a recruiting call. “Did we aggressively fight against some of the science? Yes,” McCoy said. “Did we hide our science? Absolutely not. Did we join some of these ‘shadow groups’ to work against some of the early efforts? Yes, that’s true. But there’s nothing illegal about that. You know, we were looking out for our investments. We were looking out for our shareholders.” McCoy no longer works for ExxonMobil.

Similarly candid admissions about oil’s attitude toward climate action may lurk in their internal records.

Oil companies are finally promising to change, but how much of their climate commitments are just greenwashing?

According to McCoy, the ExxonMobil lobbyist in Greenpeace’s exposé, the company had also been feigning support for a carbon tax, a policy that would increase the cost of fossil fuels to reduce demand.

“Nobody is going to propose a tax on all Americans, and the cynical side of me says, yeah, we kind of know that. But it gives us a talking point that we can say, ‘Well, what is ExxonMobil for? Well, we’re for a carbon tax,’” McCoy said.

There are other ways oil companies have inflated their records on climate, a tactic known as greenwashing. As of December 2019, the world’s five biggest oil companies had spent a combined $3.6 billion in advertising over the previous 30 years. One of Exxon’s recent marketing pushes has been in promoting its investments in research for using algae for car fuel. Someone who watches these ads might assume Exxon spends a significant portion of its budget on algae, when it accounted for 0.2 percent of its refining capacity.

Despite the rhetoric, the oil industry seems likely to stay true to its core products. As BP America CEO David Lawler said in the hearing, “This doesn’t mean BP is getting out of the oil and gas business.”

Who is calling the shots for the politicians and groups that deny climate change?

Astroturfing is the “practice of creating an illusion of public support for a cause,” according to the environmental news outlet Grist. Instead of expressing skepticism of climate science or promoting controversial policies directly, oil companies and their allies have spent big sums on other organizations that promote its priorities.

One example is the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), which has received more than $1.7 million from Exxon and its affiliates before the company left the council in 2018. ALEC has helped reverse renewable portfolio standards and plastic bag bans by pushing model legislation in states. Between 1998 and 2014, Exxon also led corporate donors in giving almost $31 million to special interest groups that promote climate change denial.

This is only a small glimpse into the grants Big Oil has given to third-party groups. The public doesn’t yet know what, exactly, the grants were for.

How much current polarization on climate change can be traced back to early disinformation campaigns by the industry?

In 2015, the LA Times and Inside Climate News published separate investigations showing that scientists in the oil industry had urged companies to consider how its products were fueling global warming via internal memos dating all the way back to the 1960s. Instead of heeding these calls, Exxon worked with other top oil companies to form a coalition that would sink a binding global climate agreement in 1998, according to documents.

From the LA Times:

How did one of the world’s largest oil companies, a leader in climate research, become one of its biggest public skeptics?

The answer, gleaned from a trove of archived company documents and the recollections of former employees, is that Exxon, now known as Exxon Mobil, feared a growing public consensus would lead to financially burdensome policies.

What are the end goals of Big Oil’s enormous marketing push?

One of the mysteries of the oil industry is the type of work it contracts out to consulting and public relations groups, which have helped Big Oil craft a benevolent public image.

Davies, of the Climate Investigations Center, wonders what the oil industry deems a PR “success.” “Who’s measuring the success of these ads? You’re spending millions of dollars on these ads, how do you measure the win?” he added.

Shedding light on the PR world’s activities could pressure the biggest firms to consider severing their ties with oil giants.

The efforts of oil companies to market themselves also loom large in a growing number of lawsuits alleging malfeasance. Rep. Ro Khanna said Thursday’s hearing is likely just the first part of a series getting to the bottom of oil industry campaigns, with a second focused on the PR industry’s role working with oil companies.

“We have a huge amount of documentation going back 40 years,” said Harvard history of science professor Naomi Oreskes ahead of the hearing, during a call with the progressive group Our Revolution.

On Thursday, the company executives claimed their position reflects the overwhelming scientific consensus that fossil fuels cause climate change. But the industry has not focused on climate-friendly policy in its lobbying.

The four oil companies present at the hearing, along with API, have spent nearly $453 million combined to lobby the federal government in the past decade, according to an analysis released Thursday by Democrats on the House Oversight committee. The analysis suggests the industry has been far more concerned with protecting tax breaks for fossil fuels than it has protecting the planet.

For example, the industry has publicly said it supports the Paris climate agreement, but in the halls of Congress, it lobbied on the matter only eight times out of 4,597 lobbying examples in the analysis. The industry devoted more than half its time lobbying on tax-related issues.

“I don’t think we really need more research … on what these companies have done, and the way they have misrepresented the truth, the facts, and continue to propagate dangerous practices,” Oreskes said on the Our Revolution call. But she thinks the hearing can help the public realize this. “We’ve been lied to … we have work to do to really get that message out.”

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