Even before EU leaders gathered in Brussels for a pre-dinner drink on Thursday, the lead candidate system was seriously on the rocks.
Leaders of the European Parliament — the institution that most vocally championed the Spitzenkandidat process for picking the next European Commission president — effectively killed it on Thursday morning.
The new heads of the Socialist and liberal-centrist groups told their conservative counterpart, Manfred Weber, he would not have their support in his bid to claim the Commission presidency.
Under the Spitzenkandidat system, the Commission president should go to a lead candidate from the European Parliament election. By that logic, Weber would be in pole position as his European People’s Party (EPP) came first in the election. But the EPP has only 180 seats in the 751-member Parliament so he needs the support of other major groups to claim the presidency.
Weber also faces resistance from multiple EU leaders, who have noted that he has no experience of high-level executive office.
A Commission president must be nominated by the European Council of EU leaders and confirmed by a vote in the European Parliament. The term of incumbent Jean-Claude Juncker of the EPP expires at the end of October.
The parliamentary group leaders, Iratxe García of the Social Democrats and Dacian Cioloș of the Renew Europe group, did not rule out supporting one of their own nominees. But their chances look slim as the EPP is unlikely to support a Spitzenkandidat put forward by rival, smaller groups who torpedoed Weber.
The group leaders’ move potentially cost Parliament substantial institutional credibility. But by dropping the ax ahead of Thursday evening’s summit discussion about leadership posts, they helped European Council President Donald Tusk in accelerating the search for what he has called “Plan B.”
With Weber and the other lead candidates, Commission First Vice President Frans Timmermans of the Socialists and Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager of the liberals, largely written off, furious speculation ensued throughout Brussels and in capitals across the Continent over who might emerge as the leading contenders to run the EU institutions.
Those talked about for Commission president included the EU’s Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, former Commission Vice President Kristalina Georgieva of Bulgaria, who is now chief executive of the World Bank, and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, as well as a constellation of current and former prime ministers including Andrej Plenković of Croatia.
Leaders have also said they hope to improve the gender balance in senior EU positions, leading to a flurry of speculation about female politicians, including outgoing Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė, and Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović. However, several EU diplomats cautioned that the hope for better gender balance would not prevent a male-centered deal, if one emerged as the most expedient solution to the great leadership jigsaw puzzle.
In addition to the Commission president, who is nominated by a qualified majority of the Council and confirmed by a majority of Parliament, the leaders must choose a European Council president as well as a high representative for foreign affairs. By treaty, the leaders are obligated to seek a balance among political parties as well as by geography and demography.
The presidency of the European Central Bank is also a factor in the discussions, though only indirectly, given the special expertise required and the bank’s political independence.
Two liberals, Belgian Prime Minster Charles Michel, who has been in a caretaker position since his coalition collapsed in December, and outgoing Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, were among those mentioned as a possible Council president.
Throughout Thursday, there were indications that leaders were headed into a potentially tense and acrimonious summit meal to discuss the top jobs. The EPP signaled it was up for a fight.
Speaking to a reporter on the sidelines of his party’s pre-summit meeting, EPP President Joseph Daul said he is furious. “What is done to Mr. Weber is a scandal,” Daul said. “He didn’t deserve it and I will defend him till the end.”
Daul also seemed to threaten to delay the entire EU leadership selection process, noting that Juncker, who is not seeking a second term, could easily stay in office. “We have time, if Juncker stays until next spring,” Daul said. “It’s really not a problem.”
The EPP, which has long dominated EU politics, won the most seats in this year’s European Parliament election and is far better organized than its rivals, especially the liberals, who have been consumed by infighting in recent days.
Numerous EU officials and diplomats said that anger is rising among conservatives who feel the liberals, steered by French President Emmanuel Macron, and the Socialists, led by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, have overplayed their hand. Many predicted the EPP would almost certainly claim the Commission presidency, just not for Weber.
Sánchez, arriving at the summit, said he is hopeful that an agreement will be reached “today or tomorrow” as a way to “send out a message of stability, of agreement, of certainty” to the European public.
He also disputed the original definition of a successful Spitzenkandidat, as the candidate of the party winning the most seats in Parliament. He said the correct definition is someone who had run as a lead candidate and could win the support of the Council and the Parliament — a remark that suggested he has not given up on Timmermans’ chances.
“The Spitzenkandidat is not the one who wins elections,” Sánchez said. “The Spitzenkandidat is the common candidate we have in each family and the person who will be elected is the one with the major support, first in the Council and then in a second step in the Parliament.”
Sanchez said that the most important thing right now is a fair division of the EU’s spoils, “the representation of political families among the four main jobs.”
Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš, who is one of two negotiators on the top jobs for the EPP in the Council, suggested a deal is still some way off.
“My sense is that we are a little ways away from this,” Kariņš said. “In the past weeks we’ve been hearing a lot of negatives, against an individual — no, no, no, no. But what we need to hear is the yes.”
“The trick is to get a positive vote,” he added. “This spirit of cooperation and compromise, which has been one of the trademarks of the European political system, is running into a little bit of bumpy waters but I’ll think we’ll overcome this.”
Those bumpy waters meant that many officials expected the heads of state and government would conclude their discussion on Thursday night without consensus on a leadership package. Tusk, who had expressed hope a deal could be reached, sought to lower expectations after meeting Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Merkel and Macron remain the biggest power players in the EU leadership deliberations, but each is also facing obstacles. Merkel has announced that she is serving her last term, and her government coalition back home is increasingly fragile.
Macron, still a political novice on the European stage, has stumbled in his early efforts to wield pan-EU influence. His pick to lead the new liberal-centrist group, former French Europe Minister Nathalie Loiseau, was forced to drop her candidacy after infuriating the group’s rank and file with a tone many complained was blustering and arrogant.
The infighting among Renew Europe, which abated only on Wednesday morning with the selection of Cioloș as group leader, slowed down efforts at inter-party negotiations both over the package of leadership jobs and over policy issues. Those talks were already moving slowly because of ambitious demands from the Greens, empowered by recent electoral success.
The Greens are not represented in the European Council and are the smallest of the four pro-EU groups in the Parliament so they are not in line for a top EU job. That gives them less reason to compromise on their policy priorities, which include more aggressive efforts to combat climate change. Even as the Socialists and liberals declared their opposition to Weber, the Greens merely stood by and said they would only endorse candidates who sign on to their priorities.
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